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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here with his top MLB player prop bet for Wednesday. His pick comes from the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees game with his sights set on Pirates starter Mitch Keller.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Prediction: Can Mitch Keller Mount Up K's on Aaron Judge and New York?

We've got 14 MLB games today, so I think we all know what we're doing. Gambling. There's simply no reason not to. And if we're being honest, I don't think we have anything better to do. It's July people. Anything goes. There just aren't any real rules. Everyone knows that. Lucky for us, we've got multiple guys that the books tagged wrong. The first one I saw was the reason I got out of bed this morning. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw it. Quite frankly, it looks like a cry for help from whoever made it. I can't believe a major sportsbook would even let us bet this.

Pirates vs. Yankees Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Pirates vs Yankees Odds

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Pirates vs. Yankees Line Movement


Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Prediction

Mitch Keller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130) (Bet $130 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings*

We're at DraftKings for this one, but if you have to play at FanDuel, they're showing 4.5 (-138), which isn't bad. Obviously, we want the best price here, but -138 isn't that much different than -130. I'm curious to see what BetMGM will give us, but we'll have to wait since they don't have any props for this game posted yet. I feel like they should be up by now, but I'm not in charge over there.

Mitch Keller isn't a great pitcher (yet). He will never be confused for Nolan Ryan. With that being said, the books have disrespected him today in a way no man should have to endure. In his career, he's pitched 240.1 innings and fanned 232 guys in those innings. That's pretty close to the magic number of one per inning. Yet, for some reason, DraftKings (and others) have slapped the 3.5 number on him like he's a common peasant. Disgusting.

This season hasn't been great for Mitch as he's thrown 70 innings and whiffed 59 guys. But here's the thing, he's come on recently (for Mitch). Over his last six starts, Keller has reached four strikeouts in five of them. The only time he didn't was when he only sat down two of the St. Louis Cardinals. That start doesn't even count, though, because nobody in their right mind would have expected Mitch Keller to mow down the Cardinals. They don't really strike out.

The Pirates' opponent tonight is the exact opposite of the St. Louis Cardinals. We're talking about the New York Yankees here. Over the last two weeks, these guys have fanned 123 times in only 440 at-bats. That's like 28% of the time people. Terrible. Going through their lineup, they've got nine guys that could start tonight that have fanned at least 24% of the time over the last couple of weeks. If Joey Gallo plays, that's two strikeouts (minimum) right there. I think this could be the greatest bet of all time.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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