Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Best Bets: Can Austin Riley and The Braves Get Hot Early?

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Best Bets: Can Austin Riley and The Braves Get Hot Early?

The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals will close out a four-game series from Truist Park tonight. The Braves have handily won the first three games of the series, winning by multiple runs in all three games so far. Now, they have a chance to sweep the series at home on a hot night in Atlanta. Can they close out the sweep? Or will the Cardinals show some life?

Let's dive into my prediction, best bets, and odds for Thursday’s finale between the Cardinals and Braves.

Braves vs. Cardinals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 7, 2022
• Game Time: 7:20 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Braves vs. Cardinals Line Movement

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

The Cardinals' offense has been unusually quiet over the first three games of the series, scoring just four runs in the first three games combined, including a shutout in last night's game. They will surely need run support tonight, as it's rookie Matthew Liberatore taking the mound tonight. Liberatore is 2-1 with a 5.66 ERA on the season. Surprisingly, the Cardinals are 4-1 in Liberatore's starts, but I think that just means they are due for a loss because he's gotten good run support in just about every start.

The most alarming stat split for Liberatore is his location. In just a small sample size, Liberatore is 2-0 at home with a 0 ERA in two starts, whereas he is 0-1 with a 10.97 ERA on the road in three starts. His road starts have gone as follows: 2.2 IP with 5 ER against the Phillies, 3.1 IP with 4 ER against the Cubs, and 4.2 IP with 4 ER against the Pirates. He has yet to make it past 4.2 innings on the road, and two of those teams aren't even very good. He now faces an uphill battle against a potent lineup who are hot and crushes lefty starters.

The Braves are third in the league with a .793 OPS against left-handed pitching. The Braves are just above average against right-handed pitching and are 29-26 when facing a right-handed starter but are much more successful with a 20-8 record against left-handed starters. That is the highest win percentage against left-handed starters in the league. I expect the rookie to struggle tonight.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet

• 2U Play: Braves F5 -.5 @ -150 (Bet $150 to win $100)

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Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Predictions

I expect Liberatore to struggle against many of the right-handed bats the Braves have, but specifically Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson. Both Riley and Swanson hit lefties exceptionally well. Riley is hitting .296 with a 1.044 OPS against lefties and has 16 extra-base hits in 81 at-bats against southpaws this season. That's an extra-base hit every 5.06 at-bats. Dansby Swanson is hitting .321 with a .958 OPS against lefties this season. He has 11 extra-base hits in 81 at-bats versus southpaws, good for an extra-base hit every 7.36 at-bats. Both men are now facing a struggling rookie who throws many fastballs for fly balls on a hot night with the wind blowing out. This is a recipe for some dingers, and I think both these guys hit over 1.5 bases and possibly go yard. Liberatore is pitching 46% fly balls, and with the humid air blowing out to left in Atlanta, this will give more carry on any ball hit out there. Take both Riley and Swanson to have a good night.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Bets

• Prop Play: Austin Riley HR @ +260 (Bet $100 to win $260)
• Prop Play: Austin Riley O1.5 Bases @ -130 (Bet $130 to win $100)
• Prop Play: Dansby Swanson HR @ +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)
• Prop Play: Dansby Swanson O1.5 Bases @ -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

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