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You know the gambling term “you never leave on a heater” that’s how I feel about betting against this guy. Here is my pick and prediction for the Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Should We Fade Joan Adon Again?

You know the gambling term “you never leave on a heater” that’s how I feel about betting against this guy. Here are my pick, prediction, and odds for the Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies game.

Phillies vs. Nationals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 7, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Nationals vs Phillies Odds

Phillies vs. Nationals Line Movement

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Pick

1u - Phillies o2.5 Team Total First 5 Innings (-145) (Bet $145 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

Joan Adon is pitching for the Nationals today, I could probably end the article there and you would all understand the thought process. Joan Adon is the gift that keeps on giving, the guy has a 1-11 record with a 6.97 ERA. The guy has been absolutely brutal all year. In 10/13 games he has allowed 3+ runs and he allows over .8 runs an inning. That would mean he averages over four runs every five innings and all we need tonight is three. The Phillies are a team that is still dangerous without Bryce Harper and have averaged 5.8 runs over their last 10 games.

Philadelphia bats .246 against righties but more importantly hits for power, Adon loves allowing HRs as he has allowed three in his last 13 innings pitched. Adon is really the easiest fade in baseball, I usually only take the first five team total overs if it’s 1.5 but I can’t not take this and watch it hit, I would go nuts. Adon could really go out there and allow this in just a few innings, he is so young and hasn’t matured yet into his game to get through those sticky situations with damage control.

Every time I bet against Adon or Keuchel people say it’s a trap and then it hits, let's just hope that trend continues. I actually expect this play to be popular but I think Adon is so wild on the mound that he could payout the whole community. On the road, he has an 8.44 ERA and this game is being played in Philly. All signs point to this being a tough outing for him. We just need three runs, I see his o4.5 hits allowed prop and it’s so tempting but something in my gut tells me to take this instead, he could get walk heavy. The hits allowed prop is also -170 so it’s a little rich for me. Adon just played Philly in his last start and allowed four runs in five innings, let's hope for a similar game as last.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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