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I haven’t bet on this pitcher in a while but he has respected our cash every time we’ve bet on him. Here is my pick and prediction for the Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays game.

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Should We Fade Joey Votto and The Reds Bats?

I haven’t bet on this pitcher in a while but he has respected our cash every time we’ve bet on him. Here is my pick, prediction, and odds for the Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays game.

Reds vs. Rays Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 9, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FS1

Click Here for Reds vs Rays Odds

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Reds vs. Rays Line Movement


Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick

1u - Reds Team Total u2.5 First 5 Innings (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

For those without DraftKings, I would pivot to Drew Rasmussen u2.5 Earned Runs because I think he has a legitimate chance of also going exactly five innings. Rasmussen is a guy who I really trust. He will rarely go too deep into games but when he’s out there he’s usually effective. He has a 3.30 ERA and has only allowed 3+ runs in four of his thirteen games pitched.

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

I’m a believer in home/away splits meaning something but his numbers are so out of whack that his road numbers are due to positive regression. Last year he was a better road pitcher and this year he’s randomly significantly better at home? I don’t buy it. I think he deals on the road. In his last start back from injury he held the Blue Jays under this number while he was In Toronto, Cincinnati should be easier.

The Reds are in the bottom 10 in runs scored per game and are worse against right-handed pitching. Cincinnati hits .232 against righties on the year and have no real experience against Drew Rasmussen to ever figure him out. I love taking a pitcher to perform well when the opposing team has little to no experience against the man on the mound. In July the Reds have only scored 23 runs in nine games. That is 2.55 runs per game. We have the u2.5 for just the first five innings alone. This bet has value.

Rasmussen has a 9/13 hit rate and Cincinnati’s offense has been dead. This is worth drinking the juice for. I genuinely think this number needs to be 1.5 so getting 2.5 feels like a steal. Rasmussen has been bad on the road but he won’t stay this bad away from Tampa, I just don’t see it. I’ll keep this one short and sweet because we have a bunch of day games and we want to all get these in as quick as possible.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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