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The Pirates and Brewers meet for the second game of a three-game series, and MLB expert Mike Spector explains which side is the best runline play for this NL Central battle.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can Ke'Bryan Hayes and the Pirates Keep it Close?

The Milwaukee Brewers have faced nine of the other 11 National League teams to this point, and though they are 11 games over .500 and in first place in the NL Central, the Brewers have a winning record in just four of those 11 head-to-head series. Thus, a big part of Milwaukee’s solid 48-37 record is a 9-2 record in their 11 meetings with the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

The Brewers continued their success against the Pirates with a 4-3 win in yesterday’s series opener but crushed the spirits of their runline backers, as closer Josh Hader allowed a run in the ninth inning (his third straight game allowing a run). 

Thus, given the trends between these teams, the question may not be if Milwaukee will win, but will they cover the runline in the process?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Saturday’s NL Central tilt between the Pirates and Brewers.

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Brewers vs. Pirates Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 9, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Brewers vs. Pirates Line Movement


Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Pittsburgh sends Zach Thompson to the mound (3-6, 4.42) for his 14th start. Though he did not give the team much length in his last start against Milwaukee, he held the Brewers to two earned runs on four hits in 4.2 innings. That seems to be the norm for Thompson, as less than half (six of his 13 starts) have lasted fewer than five innings, which is why he has just one quality start on the season. The Brewers have had his number to this point, as Thompson’s season OBA is .252, which includes a .294 OBA in 8.2 combined innings against Brewers hitters.

Milwaukee counters with Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 3.95), who has not been as sharp as last year when he finished fifth in the Cy Young voting. Woodruff held the Pirates scoreless on six hits over six innings in his previous start, his third quality start. Woodruff has not allowed a home run in his last 11 innings but had surrendered at least one long ball in each of his previous five starts. That could bite him against a Pirates team that ranks a respectable 13th in the majors with 90 home runs.

This is already Woodruff’s fourth time facing the Pirates, and sooner or later, the advantage will shift to the hitters when they see a pitcher this many times in a short span. In addition, despite having a much better record, Milwaukee is actually worse against the spread than Pittsburgh, as the Brewers are 38-47 while Pittsburgh is 40-44. This game has a low projected total of 7.5 runs, which means we will take all the runs we can get and back the underdogs on the runline.  

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Runs (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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