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Another Sunday and another edition of Sunday Night Baseball, and this week we will see division rivals face off when the Red Sox and Yankees close out their series in Fenway Park. Ben Rajavuori is here to break down the game and share his bet play.
ANALYSIS

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Another Sunday and another edition of Sunday Night Baseball, and this week we will see division rivals face off when the Red Sox and Yankees close out their series in Fenway Park. It's one of the greatest rivalries in baseball, and the stadium will no doubt be sold out tonight.

The Red Sox are coming off an electric win in extra-innings last night after Alex Vergudo hit a walk-off single for two RBIs in the bottom of the 10th inning. The Yankees still lead the series 2-1, but a win tonight for the Red Sox will give them a series tie, which is a win when you're playing the high-powered Yankees. So what should you bet for this week's Sunday night baseball game?

Red Sox vs. Yankees Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 10, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

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Red Sox vs. Yankees Line Movement

 

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Prediction

Jameson Taillon will start for the Yankees today, and he has the fifth-highest win-loss record with a 9-2 record on the season. He has a 3.63 ERA in his 16 starts. The Yankees were 13-2 in games that Taillon started before a loss against the Pirates, but they are still 13-3 in games that Taillon starts on the bump. This is surprising because Taillon actually has the highest ERA in the starting rotation.

Of course, it's not all about ERA, but Taillon has been getting excellent run support for the most part. He is starting to regress, however. In his last three starts, Taillon has allowed 14 runs in 16 innings for a 7.87 ERA. Two of those starts were against two of the worst teams in the league, the Pirates and Athletics. Now, Taillon is starting against the team with the highest batting average in the league, the Red Sox, who have a .260 team average this season.

Taking the mound for the Red Sox today will be Pivetta. Pivetta is 8-6 on the season with a 3.68 ERA, and he has been the most solid piece in the Red Sox rotation. The Red Sox had won nine of the last ten games started by Pivetta before most recently losing to the Rays. Pivetta had a rough start to the season, going 0-3 in April with a 8.27 ERA, but he bounced back in a big way by going through May with a 2.11 ERA, then June with a 2.25 ERA.

He also tends to always come out better after a rough start, and he is coming off an outing where he gave up seven runs in 5.2 innings against the Rays. Pivetta struggled in his first meeting of the year against the Yankees, but that was his first start of the season, and it was on the road. He is set up much better for success in this start.

The thing that has really stuck out to me in this series was the pitching mismatches. Game one was Cole versus Winckowski, which is a game the Yankees should win every time. Game two was Cortes versus Seabold, which, again, is a heavily lopsided matchup that favors the Yankees. Game three was Crawford versus Montgomery, which favors the Yankees less, but that's the game they lost after all.

All three of the first three games in this series had pitcher matchups that heavily favored the Yankees, and the Yankees had their three best pitchers starting those games. Taillon has the highest ERA in the current healthy rotation for the Yankees and has also been regressing hard lately.

The Red Sox, conversely, had three of their worst starting pitchers in the first three games and now start their most reliable healthy pitcher in Nick Pivetta. Pivetta leads the Red Sox in wins, and the Red Sox have won nine of his last eleven starts. This game should be much more evenly matched on the mound than the first three.

It's not like the Red Sox have been blown away either. They nearly won game one, losing by only one run, and they won game three, so even with the Yankee's lopsided pitching advantages, it's not like they've dominated the whole series.

It's not easy to fade the Yankees this season, considering they could potentially break the wins record this season. They seem to never be out of a game, and they have only lost back-to-back games six times this season. So, while I like the Red Sox in this game, I can't take the moneyline. Instead, I will back the Red Sox in the first five innings. Pivetta is the Red Sox's best chance to be leading after five, and Taillon has been regressing over his last few starts, so I like the home team to be ahead after the first half in what should be a full ballpark with an electric crowd.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Pick

Play: Red Sox F5 ML @ +106 (Bet $100 to win $106)

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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