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I was hoping for this number all night and we got it, it’s meant to be. Here is my pick and prediction for the Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres game tonight.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Predictions: Should We Fade Sean Manaea Against The Rockies?

I was hoping for this number all night and we got it, it’s meant to be. Here is my pick, prediction, and odds for the Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres game tonight.

Rockies vs Padres Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Rockies vs Padres Odds

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Rockies vs Padres Line Movement

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Pick

1.5u - Rockies o2.5 Team Total First 5 Innings (-120) (Bet $180 to win $150)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

You know I like this bet if I play it for more than 1 unit. I’m a big “law of averages” nerd and Colorado played a lefty last night and struggled. The Rockies are the best team in baseball against lefties and I definitely don’t expect them to struggle two days straight. Against lefties they hit .286 on the season and face Sean Manaea today. Manaea is someone who we have rooted for before multiple times but this feels like a spot he gets rocked in.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Manaea has allowed 3+ earned runs in nine of his last 12 games and this is his toughest matchup yet. This game has a 12-run total because it’s being played at Coors too. The Rockies are now due positive regression against lefties and Manaea has been brutal, this all points to him getting hit pretty bad today. These Rockies bats hit 15-44 lifetime against Manaea which is good for over a .340 average. Manaea has pitched at Coor twice in his career and allowed three runs both times. I see the same happening today and in the first five innings as well, this total is just so high.

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Sean Manaea’s earned runs allowed prop is set at 3.5 so it feels like we’re getting value here at 2.5 on the first five team total. I would bring up home/away splits but it’s an irrelevant point, the only thing that matters is that this is the least pitcher-friendly park. With the elevation and dimensions of the park, it is a park that no pitcher will be happy playing at. The Rockies average the most runs in the MLB at home with 5.77. That factors in righties have into that metric and well all know this team hits lefties better, I think three is a very obtainable number here. We’re laying 1.8u to win 1.5u here, this is the play of the day!

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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