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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here to break down the first game between the Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers this Monday. He's eyeing a player prop involving Royals starting pitcher Brad Keller.

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction: Can Brad Keller Rack Up The Strikeouts?

When I saw baseball Mitch was going at 6:40 pm ET, I knew there was one thing that I had to do. I needed to get a late game on the card immediately. The last thing any of us want is to watch baseball Mitch cover in the first inning and then leaves us with no action for the rest of the night. We've seen it a million times at this point and it's never cool. The problem is, the late games are awful so we need to pivot. The only logical thing to do is to take the earliest game so the baseball Mitch game will feel like a late game. That's called innovation. You have to be smart in this game we play and we just proved how smart we are with this move. We're just living the dream people.

Royals vs. Tigers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Royals vs Tigers Odds

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Royals vs. Tigers Line Movement

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Pick

Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

We're at DraftKings for this one but you can play it at FanDuel too since they have 4.5 (+120). It's not that different. BetMGM split the difference and hung 4.5 (+125) so they are always an option too. Never forget that FanDuel offers the ladders and right now they're showing Keller 6+ (+255) which seems like it could be a nice way to start the week. Definitely feels like that could be in play with the right lineup.

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Do you want some honesty right now? I'll give you some. I was hoping we could get a 3.5 on this guy. I would have paid the juice. We're talking about a guy who only has 59 strikeouts in 90.2 innings of work this season. Over his career, he is a 432 in 584.2 frames guy. That's not a strikeout guy but we're still seeing 4.5s for some reason. I get that he's at home but come on. Still, the plus money will always make get down. Always.

The bad news is, that Keller has only reached this number twice in his last four starts. Both were on the road too which isn't great but in the two starts he didn't get home on 4.5, he ended up with three and four. Each game was against teams that haven't been striking out lately (Astros & Athletics). Totally not his fault. Lucky for us, Keller will be getting a team today that is no stranger to getting sat down by opposing pitchers. We like that.

In two starts against the Detroit Tigers this season, Brad Keller has fanned five in both starts. That's a good place to start on this one. Detroit isn't exactly a team that you target with these moves, but they also aren't a team you avoid in this market. We're talking about a team that has struck out 715 times in 2777 at-bats on the year. We're likely to see five guys in the lineup today that all have stuck out at least 27% of the time over the last two weeks. We could see two more that are above 21% over that span. This feels like a great spot to cash a plus money banger in the middle of a weekday afternoon.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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