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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here to break down the Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates game tonight. He's eying a player prop involving Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can Mitch Keller Mow Down Jesus Sanchez and the Marlins?

Before I went to bed last night I looked at the lines for Monday and I saw something that changed my life. It doesn't happen all the time but when it does, you never forget it. I saw a line so good that I couldn't even sleep. I legit just sat at the end of my bed and waited until today got here. I did mental simulations the whole time and actually lost count of how many I did. All I do know is that none of them even came close to losing. Not even once. It was crazy. The only bad thing about this bet is we'll have to wait until 6:40 pm ET because that's when the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Miami Marlins. Other than that, this bet is perfect. It could literally get us in the Gambling Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Get your speeches ready.

Marlins vs. Pirates Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Marlins vs Pirates Odds

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Marlins vs. Pirates Line Movement

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

Mitch Keller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155) (Bet $155 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

We're at DraftKings for this one because they are the only book on the planet crazy enough to slap a 3.5 on this guy. Although we should keep in mind that BetMGM still has no player props and they'll probably follow DraftKings' lead. If you're at FanDuel, baseball Mitch is a 4.5 guy now but you are getting that number at +108. Not too shabby. As always, FanDuel has ladders so today feels like a good day to take a climb on one of them. We're talking 6+ (+240) here people.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Up until recently, Mitch Keller would have never been considered a Circle of Trust guy. It's my Circle of Trust and I decided who gets in. But people make mistakes and I'm man enough to admit to mine. It's actually pretty big of me to admit a mistake like that. It's a big mistake that only a big man would admit to. Everyone knows that. The thing is, baseball Mitch is a strikeout per inning pitched guy over his career (239 to 246.1) so he should have been in consideration this whole time.

The thing about baseball Mitch is that he's been mowing people down for weeks now. Over his last seven starts, he's fanned at least four guys in each of them. He's gone as high as seven in two of them. That's twice as much as 3.5 if you're familiar with math. The only time he didn't reach four was a start against the St. Louis Cardinals so that doesn't even count. That team barely ever strikes out. Not his fault.

Today baseball Mitch will face the Miami Marlins which is great for strikeout connoisseurs like us. They are perfect at it. They don't whiff so much like the Los Angeles Angels that they get your pitcher pinched with a higher number. At the same time, they're aren't out there just making a mockery of the strikeout over props like the Cleveland Guardians. On the season, they've struck out 12th most in MLB. We're going to see at least a handful of guys that have fanned a minimum of 25% of their at-bats over the last couple of weeks. Baseball Mitch should get home on this number easily.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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