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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is back with another best bet for the Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates game tonight. This time he's eyeing the Pirates again.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prop Pick: Can Ke'Bryan Hayes and the Pirates Bats Get Hot?

I was looking at the lines again today and if we're being honest, we need another bet. I really wish I had something later but I really don't like any of those games. The books have us trapped in all of them where the range of outcomes are just too wild. But as fate would have it, all roads lead back to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins game at 6:40 pm ET. We already have Mitch Keller to watch so why not throw some bats in there too? It makes sense if you think about it. It also makes sense if you get a plus money move which we have.

Marlins vs. Pirates Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Marlins vs Pirates Odds

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Marlins vs. Pirates Line Movement

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prop Pick

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Over 3.5 (+115) (Bet $100 to win $115)

*Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing*

We're at BetMGM for this one but if you have to play at DraftKings and FanDuel, don't worry. They're hanging 3.5 (+105) at DraftKings and 3.5 (+102) at FanDuel. That's pretty much playable in my book. At the end of the day, what are our options? Not bet? That feels like a bad idea where I'm from. If you think about it, we're already backing Mitch Keller. Again, why not get excited about the bats too?

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

A lot of people think my specialty is team totals since I'm 100% (1-0) over the last day in those bets. It may come as a surprise that these are not moves I make a lot. I only do these when I don't have a pitcher strikeout prop and when I know I found a team that will cover their number. We have that exact situation tonight as I don't have enough pitcher strikeout moves and I know the Pirates will score at least four runs. Feels like a perfect opportunity to get some cash down.

I'll admit, backing the Pittsburgh Pirates team total over isn't always the best move. On the season, only two teams have scored fewer runs than they have (Athletics & Tigers). But the tides are turning in the Steel City. Over the last 30 days, these Pirates have scored more runs than 15 other teams. Only two teams have hit more balls over the fence during the month. Oh how the turntables turn. I mean, they're only hitting .214 in that span with a .686 OPS but still. At least they're scoring runs.

The pitcher for the Miami Marlins will be Trevor Rogers which is good for the Pirates' chances of scoring runs. The guy has a 5.57 ERA this season. He's started 16 games this season and he's given up at least four earned runs in five of them. Three of those games were in Miami too which is an extra boost. Things have gotten worse lately as well since he's given up at least three runs in seven of his last nine starts. If I had to guess, I'd say that the Pirates could get this number off of Rogers before they leave the first inning.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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