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The San Francisco Giants take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first game of their three-game series. Will it be a low-scoring game? How will tonight's series opener play out? Jason Radowitz answers.
ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction: Will Alex Cobb Or Merrill Kelly Limit the Offense?

After falling to 41-41 on the season, the Giants notched two straight wins over the San Diego Padres and now have momentum as the All-Star break approaches.

The Giants will start a new home series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, looking to continue a two-game winning streak that was started over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 4-6 in their last 10 games and are coming off a loss to the Rockies, 3-2.

How will tonight's series opener play out? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Monday's game between the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:45 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSAZ, NBCSBA

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Giants vs. Diamondbacks Injury Report

Giants

Questionable: 1B Brandon Belt (Knee) Out: C Curt Casali (Oblique), 3B Evan Longoria (Oblique), 2B Tommy La Stella (Illness)

Diamondbacks

Out: SS Nick Ahmed (Shoulder)

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Line Movement

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

The Giants will look to stay hot with Alex Cobb on the mound tonight. The right-handed pitcher has a 3-3 record with a 4.74 ERA on the season.

However, in the last 30 days, Cobb has had a 3.67 xFIP while earning 60.3% of ground balls. He's also limited walks to 4.9%.

Meanwhile, Cobb has allowed 25.4% of line drives and is earning just 14.8% of strikeouts. He's also been a bit worse against lefties, allowing a .336 wOBA and ISO of .225 in his last 42 plate appearances against lefties.

In the Diamondbacks order, there are going to be eight lefties in the lineup. Still, the lineup against righties isn't all that appealing, as they're hitting just a .152 ISO and wOBA of .305 in the last 30 days against righties.

Only David Peralta has really shined in the last 30 days with a .226 ISO and wOBA of .360 agaisnt righties through his last 56 plate appearances.

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On the other hand, it'll be Merrill Kelly getting the road start for the Diamondbacks. He's been solid with a 7-5 record and a 3.42 ERA.

In the last 30 days, he's holding a 4.36 xFIP with just 20.3% of strikeouts. However, like Cobb, he's earning plenty of ground balls and limiting walks at a very high rate.

What has really stood out the most for Kelly is that he's allowed just 14.7% of line drives in the last 30 days and has also been able to limit power.

The Giants' projected lineup only has a .290 wOBA and have struck out 27% of the time against righties in those 30 days. Kelly isn't a high-strikeout thrower but could end up earning more in this game against the Giants.

The only two consistent bats for the Giants against righties are Joc Pederson and Luis Gonzalez, who both have elevated ISO and wOBA numbers in the last 30 days. But that's about it.

Therefore, I'll trust both above-average pitchers to keep this game close. I'll grab the Under 7.5 for the MLB's latest game of the night.

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

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Article Author

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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