St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will Mike Mikolas or Aaron Nola Have The Upper Hand?

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will Mike Mikolas or Aaron Nola Have The Upper Hand?

Mondays in Major League Baseball schedules are a typical off day for teams or for teams to begin new series. However, the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals have the rare occurrence where their weekend series spills over into Monday, and the teams are left to wrap up their series at the beginning of the week.

St. Louis is in a position to salvage a split of the four-game series after yesterday’s 4-3 victory. Surprisingly, that was the highest-scoring game of any of the three games, as Philadelphia shut the Cardinals out in consecutive games, 2-0 and 1-0, on Friday and Saturday. 

The moneyline odds suggest this game is more or less a pick’em, as the Phillies are slight -115 favorites. However, does the better value or more obvious play once again lie with the total?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Monday’s series finale between the Phillies and Cardinals.

Cardinals vs Phillies Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 11, 2022
• Game Time: 7:15 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Cardinals vs Phillies Line Movement

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia’s bullpen is slightly more taxed entering this game, as it used five relievers to combine for a bullpen game in yesterday’s loss. However, that will not be as much of an issue with Aaron Nola (5-6, 3.15) on the mound, as he is an innings-eater who has pitched at least seven innings in six consecutive starts. Nola’s 111.1 innings are the second-most in the majors behind Sandy Alcantara’s 130.1.

Nola is 5-2 with a 2.19 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis. A big key to his success recently is his ability to limit the Cardinals’ two table setters, Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson, as they are a combined 0-for-13 against him. Edman is mired in a slump with four hits in his last 33 at-bats, while Donovan has missed the previous two games with an illness. Those two are big reasons why teammates Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt won consecutive NL Player of the Month Awards to begin the season, as they consistently had Edman and Carlson on base to drive in.

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Having Miles Mikolas (5-7, 2.72) start on the other side for St. Louis also bodes well for the under, as the Cardinals have been held to one or fewer runs in six of his starts. Mikolas is 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Philadelphia. He will look to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard, as his two home runs allowed in his last start against Atlanta (three total runs over six innings) led to a 3-0 Braves victory.

The under has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings in St. Louis between these teams and is 9-0 in the Cardinals’ last nine night games against NL East opponents. Given the success that each starting pitcher has had this season and the fact that no game in this series has exceeded seven runs, we do not expect this finale to be the highest-scoring of the four.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick

PICK: Phillies-Cardinals UNDER 7.5 Runs (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)

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