New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Can Graham Ashcraft Match Zeros With Gerrit Cole?
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Can Graham Ashcraft Match Zeros With Gerrit Cole?
The New York Yankees got a much-needed day off after a draining back-and-forth four-game series with the Boston Red Sox. Now they welcome an opponent they have not faced since 2017 in the Cincinnati Reds, who enter on a four-game winning streak after their surprising sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. Cincinnati has won four straight on one other occasion this year, so another upset of the Yankees would make it the Reds' longest winning streak of the season.
As is typical with New York's Gerrit Cole on the mound, the moneyline odds are very steep, so one is better off finding other plays with increased value. So which bet catches our eye today? Read on for our best play and odds for Tuesday's series finale between the Reds and Yankees.
Yankees vs. Reds Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: July 12, 2022
- Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLBN
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Yankees vs. Reds Line Movement
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Gerrit Cole (8-2, 3.26) has won back-to-back starts to begin July despite not having his best stuff. He has allowed four home runs over his previous 12 innings, and command has been an issue, as he has issued three walks in three of his last four starts. Therefore, it is a reprieve to face the free-swinging Reds, who rank 26th in BB% (7.5%) and 24th in slugging (.379).
Cole's pedestrian 3.26 ERA (by his standards) is a product of a challenging schedule where each of his last six opponents had winning records. Against teams under .500, Cole has allowed 13 earned runs over 42.1 innings (2.78 ERA) and an even better 2.56 ERA in home starts. Thus, he should cruise against the light-hitting Reds, whose already low team total (2.5 runs) is already juiced to the under at -130 odds.
Opposing Cole is Cincinnati's Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.35), whose 3.74 xERA suggests he has been unlucky to this point. Ashcraft has an excellent command of the strike zone with a minuscule 4.1% BB rate, and he does not often allow hard contact, as his 85.9 mph exit velocity allowed ranks in the 94th percentile of the league. New York is also a fair bet to surpass the projected run total by themselves, but it will be increasingly more difficult to do so against a pitcher who does not issue free passes and has a high ground ball rate (53.4%).
The Reds and Yankees are each slightly more profitable to the over after a day off, as Cincinnati's O/U record is 6-5 while New York's is 5-4 after an off-day. However, the Yankees have their ace going, the Reds oppose him with a promising young pitcher, and New York's elite bullpen (3.60 xFIP over the last 30 days) has its best arms available to nail down the late innings.
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
- Under 8 Runs (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)
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