Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction: Can the Angels Get The Win Behind Shohei Ohtani?
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction: Can the Angels Get The Win Behind Shohei Ohtani?
The Houston Astros continued to exert its dominance against AL West opponents, beating the Los Angeles Angels for the eighth time in 11 head-to-head meetings in last night's series opener. The Astros now have a 12.5-game lead in the division and are 20 games clear of the fourth-place Angels.
So why is Houston an underdog at Los Angeles tonight? That could only mean that Shohei Ohtani is on the mound. Are the Angels the rightful favorite, or is there value with the road underdogs?
Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Wednesday's AL West tilt between the Astros and Angels.
Angels vs Astros Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: July 13, 2022
- Game Time: 9:38 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Angels vs Astros Line Movement
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Prediction
The Astros are not often underdogs on the road, as this is their 12th time as underdogs in their 48th road game. However, they were a profitable 6-5 in the previous 11 games, which is a big reason why they were one of only four MLB teams entering Tuesday that were profitable by more than ten units. Houston bettors were up 10.5 units entering yesterday's series opener, and two of the three more profitable teams, the Yankees (+12.4) and Mets (+10.7), both lost.
Shohei Ohtani (8-4, 2.44) is following up last year's MVP campaign with another stellar year. After his latest start, ESPN Stats & Info came out with the following nuggets about Ohtani's success. Over his last five starts, Ohtani had six more home runs than earned runs allowed (seven to one), nine more hits than he allowed (25 to 16), and eleven more hard-hit balls (95+ mph exit velocity) than he allowed (37 to 26). It is no wonder he is often compared to Babe Ruth.
However, Ohtani has had his share of struggles against Houston in his career. Though his 34.1% strikeout rate is sensational, his 11.6% BB rate is alarming, and both metrics are an easy combination of getting a pitch count up quickly. And when Astros hitters put the ball in play against him, they have a BABIP of .348 and an xOBP of .303.
By comparison, today's Astros starter, Cristian Javier (6-4, 3.01), has struck out Angels hitters 40.4% of the time in his career and held them to a .220 BABIP, a .234 xOBP, and a .170 xOBA.
With numbers like these, it is evident that the Angels are favored simply because of who is toeing the rubber, but a deeper dive suggests Javier will be more successful. Los Angeles has lost eight consecutive games against American League opponents, and we expect them to run that straight to nine straight losses tonight.
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Pick
PICK: Houston Astros ML (+105) (Bet $100 to win $105)
Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest