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Handicapper and MLB player prop specialist John Hyslop is back again this Wednesday, with another top strikeout prop bet to add. This time his pick comes from the New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds matchup, eyeing Luis Severino.

New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Will Luis Severino Sit Down Brandon Drury and the Reds?

Nobody wants to wait until 9:38 pm ET for their first bet, so we're definitely not doing that tonight. That's dumb. It's the summertime, and we're just hanging out waiting for football to come back. We need to be gambling. It's just that simple. Lucky for us, I went back through the lines a second time and struck gold. Platinum even. Maybe something even better than that. Who really knows? All I do know is there's a bet in the Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees game that has a zero percent chance of losing. What's even better is the game starts at 7:05 pm ET, so it can act as an appetizer for the main course that starts at 9:38 pm ET. The only downside is this game isn't nationally televised, so only people that have YES can watch it. Still, this guy could cover this by the end of the second inning, so what are we really watching?

Yankees vs. Reds Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 13, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV, YES

Click Here for Yankees vs. Reds Odds

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Yankees vs. Reds Line Movement

New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Luis Severino Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115) (Bet $110 to win $115)

*Odds Available at DraftKings*

I feel pretty shady quoting DraftKings because BetMGM has the same exact number and price. Still, I went DraftKings because it's my life, and I live how I want to live. You can just do what is probably your best option. If you can't play at either of those books, just go FanDuel. They're sitting at 6.5 (+106), which isn't that bad. Obviously, the fine people at FanDuel have ladders, so if you want to go 8+ (+220) like an absolute legend, nobody is going to stop you. Not me, at least. I love absolute legends.

Here's the thing about Luis Severino. The haters are going to tell you that he's in a slump. They're going to say that he hasn't hit this number in two starts, and one of those starts was against the Pittsburgh Pirates, which is unforgivable. Haters are mean, and they say mean things. That's just how haters work. But what those fools don't understand is that Severino isn't on the road tonight like he was in those last two bad starts. In my book, those starts don't even count.

Luis Severino is a home guy. He's no road warrior. In Dumb & Dumber, we learned that some guys just aren't cut out for life on the road. That movie came out in 1994, so we've known this for a while now. Looking at Severino's splits, he's struck out 56 guys in 44.2 innings of work at home this season. Compare that to 38 in 39.1 innings on the road, and we've got a guy that likes to pitch at home on our hands. There's nothing wrong with that. Home is where the heart is.

Tonight Severino will welcome the Cincinnati Reds to his lair of death, and they are a good team to have over the crib if you like strikeouts, that is. Over the last two weeks, no team in MLB has struck out more than they have. We're talking 156 whiffs in just 466 at-bats. That's like 33% of their at-bats which is terrible (if you don't like strikeouts). Just looking through their lineup, there are six guys that are all 30+% whiff guys over the last couple of weeks. We've got another three that are all above 25% in the metric. I don't know about you, but I think this Reds team is Luis Severino's slump buster. Sometimes that's all anyone needs.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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