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The Phillies and Marlins begin a three-game series in Miami on Friday night, and MLB expert Mike Spector weighs in with his best game prop involving a team total.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can the Phillies Get to Sandy Alcantara Tonight?

While the American League Cy Young Award race has four players currently with odds of +850 or shorter and +210 being the shortest, the National League Cy Young Award race feels much more like a runaway in comparison. The Miami Marlins' Sandy Alcantara is the odds-on favorite at -110, and only one other pitcher (Corbin Burnes) has odds shorter than +1100. 

Alcantara takes the mound in the opener of a three-game home series against the Philadelphia Phillies. This is his third time facing the Phillies this season, earning a win and a no-decision in the first two starts. Will he continue to add to his Cy Young resume, or will the third time be the charm for success for Philadelphia against him?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Friday's N.L. East series opener between the Phillies and Marlins.

Marlins vs. Phillies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 15, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Marlins vs. Phillies Line Movement

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

It is not hard to see why Alcantara is head and shoulders above all other N.L. pitchers at the moment in terms of Cy Young voting, as he has a 9-3 record, with a 1.73 ERA that ranks second in the league, and a 0.91 WHIP that ranks third. Even Alcantara’s “expected” metrics are eye-popping, as he has held opponents to a .268xwOBA, .215 xBA (up slightly from his .193 OBA), and .339 xSLG. He also gives his bullpen plenty of rest in his starts, as his 130.1 innings pitched are 12 more than the next closest competitor.

Alcantara faces a Phillies lineup that has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching since the calendar turned to June. Philadelphia ranks 25th in batting and slugging, 26th in OPS, and 27th in wOBA against righties in that span, and this will arguably be the toughest righty they have faced. The Phillies have scored two runs apiece in their two meetings with Alcantara, totaling 13 hits in 14 combined innings. 

From a team total perspective, Philadelphia's O/U of 2.5 runs makes a lot of sense given what the data suggests, as well as the fact that Alcantara has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his previous 13 starts. Furthermore, the Phillies have not scored more than three runs in five of the seven head-to-head meetings this season (3-4 against Miami in that span).

With Philadelphia's team total, there is a massive difference between a line of 2.5 and 3.0, given that those who back the over at 3.0 would need them to score four runs to cash. Thus, we will jump at the opportunity to support the over of 2.5 (despite its steep juice), given that they have pushed two runs across against Alcantara the first two times they saw him and would thus only need one late run against Marlins relievers to cash. Also, since this is the third time they are seeing the young ace in a short span, perhaps that tilts the advantage slightly to the hitters in this matchup. 

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies Team Total OVER 2.5 Runs (-145) (Bet $145 to win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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