New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction: Will Rafael Devers and the Red Sox Get to Gerrit Cole?
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction: Will Rafael Devers and the Red Sox Get to Gerrit Cole?
Wagering on Major League Baseball games on the Sunday before the All-Star break can be tricky, as one never knows what teams or players are mentally checked out knowing some much-needed days off (at least for the non-All-Stars) are right around the corner. However, one should not have to question the motivation level of the Boston Red Sox today, as they are still searching for their first series win against a division rival when they face the New York Yankees in today's rubber match.
The Red Sox are 0-9-1 in their ten series against A.L. East opponents and are 12-25 against their division this year, making them one of only two AL teams 13 or more games under .500 against divisional opponents.
Will Boston head into the All-Star break with the monkey off its backs of earning its first divisional series win, or will New York finish an impressive first half with another statement victory? Read on for our best play and odds for Sunday's A.L. East matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: July 17, 2022
- Game Time: 1:35 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
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Yankees vs. Red Sox Line Movement
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction
Boston has a bit of a wild card on the mound today, as one cannot be sure what the Red Sox will get out of Chris Sale (0-0, 0.00) in just his second start of the season. Nevertheless, Boston backers should be encouraged by Sale's clean 78-pitch scoreless outing in his first start, and his pitch count suggests he could be in line for a workload of somewhere in the 80s today, especially since a long layoff is coming. Sale allowed just one barreled ball among the 13 that were put in play against him by Tampa Bay. And even if Sale does not go as deep in the game as projected, Boston's bullpen ranks in the top ten in xFIP over the last two weeks.
Typically the Yankees' moneyline odds are much steeper when Gerrit Cole (8-2, 3.05) toes the rubber. However, Cole has not been his usual dominant self this season (although his metrics are still well above average), and Boston has hit him hard this season. The Red Sox have scored eight runs in ten innings against Cole this season. Of the five players with at least 20 at-bats against Cole, all have taken him deep twice or are hitting at least .250 against him.
It sounds crazy, but perhaps facing Cole is precisely what the Boston offense needs to wake up from a slump that has them ranked in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ over the last 14 days. Conversely, New York's offense leads the league in wRC+ and OPS in that span, but they have slightly worse metrics against lefties than righties.
The Yankees are deserving favorites, but their price is too steep given the caliber of pitcher Boston has on the mound and how much success the Red Sox have had against Cole. Thus, we cannot pass up Boston's +170 moneyline odds for pure value.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick
- Red Sox ML (+170) (Bet $100 to win $170)
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