San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Will Logan Webb and the Giants Cruise Into the Break?

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Will Logan Webb and the Giants Cruise Into the Break?

The San Francisco Giants are playing with fire, but it's working. A night after the Giants scored six runs against Josh Hader, and the Giants finished the Milwaukee Brewers in a 2-1 pitching duel. The Giants are now 47-43 and finally escaping the .500 life.

Tonight, they'll look to get another victory in the win column against the Brewers before heading into the All-Star Break. Will the Giants rally behind one of their best pitchers in today's series finale? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Sunday's game between the Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants.

Giants vs. Brewers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 17, 2022
• Game Time: 4:05 pm ET
• Where to Watch: BSWI, NBCSBA

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Giants vs. Brewers Injury Report

Giants

Out: C Curt Casali (Oblique) 2B Tommy La Stella (Illness), SS Brandon Crawford (Knee)

Brewers

Out: OF Tyrone Taylor (Concussion)

Giants vs. Brewers Line Movement

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

The Giants will certainly have the better pitcher in the series finale. The Giants will send out right-handed ace Logan Webb, who is 8-3 with a 2.82 ERA on the season. Webb has been tremendous this season but currently holds a 4.02 xFIP in the last 30 days. That's still above average but way higher than his actual ERA.

In those 30 days, Webb has struck out 21.5% of batters faced and has issued out just 4.6% of walks. Webb has also induced nearly 55% of ground balls and has limited line drives to just 16%.

Against righties, the projected lineup of the Brewers is hitting a .213 ISO with a wOBA of .345 in the last 30 days. Milwaukee has above-average numbers against righties but will have a tough time consistently trying to hit Logan Webb.

Still, players to watch include Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, and Hunter Renfroe, who have easily been the three hottest batters against righties. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich and Andrew McCutchen have also put up solid numbers against righties.

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On the other hand, it’ll be left-hander Aaron Ashby for the Brewers. Ashby has a 2-6 record with a 4.37 ERA on the season. He's shown flashes of excellence and has some good put-away stuff, but his command and consistency are lacking.

Ashby has had a 4.76 xFIP in the last 30 days, along with 10.2% of walks. But he's also struck out nearly 24% of batters in the last 30 days. If Ashby would just keep his command in check, he would be as good as any lefty, like Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon, for example.

However, tonight it'll be a serious challenge for Ashby. The Giants have struck out 26.1% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup. That's bad, I know. But this lineup has also hit an ISO of .244 with a wOBA of .403 against lefties in that same time frame.

And to scare you off Ashby more, the Giants have smacked nearly 30% of line drives in that time frame against lefties and have limited ground balls to 34.1%.

So yes, San Francisco will strike out many times, but when contact is made, the Giants will have serious potential to score some runs. Remember two days ago when the Giants slugged left-handed closer Josh Hader off the mound in a walk-off win?

I'm taking the Giants at -145 on the moneyline in this one.

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

• Giants (-145) (Bet $145 to Win $100)

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