2022 MLB Home Run Derby Best Bet: How Many Dingers Will Juan Soto Hit?

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Best Bet: How Many Dingers Will Juan Soto Hit?

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 18, 2022
• Start Time:8:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch:ESPN

Click here for 2022 MLB Home Run Derby odds

Today is a tough day for any gambler. A lot of people say it's the toughest. I'd argue that the day after the MLB All-Star Break is the toughest but that's just me. We at least have the Homerun Derby tonight. People are going to call us degenerates for betting it but honestly, who cares? It's not their fault that they don't understand the greatest hobby on the planet. While they're watching some rando show their wife picked out on Netflix tonight we'll be knee deep in action like the kings (and queens) we are. Sounds like we're winning this battle.

Luckily for us, I found a couple moves that may not be that dumb which is also cool. It's tough to bet the derby and expect to make cash but I think I've figured out how to do it. It wasn't easy as it took a ton of brain power to run these mental simulations but in the end, it was worth it. We're all going to have a great time tonight.

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Juan Soto Over 33.5 Home Runs (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

This one is at DraftKings but it can also be played at BetMGM so there is that. Not trying to be picky but FanDuel doesn't have these player totals which is kind of a big deal. In their defense, they do have some sweet props so we can forgive them but still. There are literally zero sports on tonight. We should be bombarded with ridiculous props on this thing. It's the right thing to do.

The way I see it, this is basically taking Juan Soto to win his first round matchup with Jose Ramirez. The number for this at FanDuel is -185 so the -110 we're getting here feels better. Obviously just beating Ramirez alone will not get Soto to this number but I'm guessing if this guy gets two rounds, we'll see at least 34 home runs. We're talking about a guy who just turned down a $440 million contract here. You don't do that and then come to the Home Run Derby and fail to hit at least 34 dongs. That's just not how this world works.

1+ 500 Foot Home Run to be Hit (+160) (Bet $100 to win $160)

People are going to say this is a sucker bet but is it? I'm not so sure. First off, the term "sucker bet" is generally used by losers. They use the term as a way of pretending to know what they are talking when it comes to gambling even though they don't gamble themselves because they stink at it and have already lost a ton of cash. I try not to even associate with these people because of bad vibes alone. They seem to make every conversation we have worse than the one before. It's up to you whether or not you want to hang around them though. It's your life.

The thing about this one is it's fun. Bottom line, it's the most fun bet we can make because it could happen on any swing. I think about it like this, we've got eight guys that can smash so we're good with power. None of them have a 500-foot home run in their career but we're talking about the Home Run Derby here. That's nothing like a real at bat anyway. But power isn't even the angle I'm playing. I'm going "smartest man in the room" on this one. You know MLB is going to roll out the juiced balls tonight. It's the perfect time to do it. Everyone knows that. If I had to guess, I'd say one of these guys can definitely hit one of those juiced balls to the moon. Maybe even further. That's more than 500 feet so when that happens, we get paid.