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The MLB Home Run Derby is tonight and our guy Brian Matthews is here with a longshot play. Can Julio Rodriguez pull off a surprise win?

MLB Home Run Derby Longshot Pick: Can Julio Rodriguez Pull Off a Surprise Win?

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

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2022 MLB Home Run Derby Prediction

The 2022 T-Mobile Home Run Derby will take place at Dodger Stadium tonight at 8 p.m. ET.  The field is diverse, bringing a variety of different styles and ages, to the field.

I’m genuinely excited by this group, which includes interesting narratives to keep an eye on.  Former Dodger Corey Seager returns to Chavez Ravine, now a member of the Texas Rangers, after spending his first seven years with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The crowd shouldn’t have much reason to boo Seager, and could provide Seager an extra boost in a park he is plenty familiar with.

Julio Rodriguez comes in with a hot bat and is my favorite longshot to win the Home Run Derby.  He recently hit 37 home runs in his first simulation of the home run derby.  He did this at Globe Life Field, a park much less friendly to right-handed hitters than Chavez Ravine.  The match-up between Rodriguez and Seager is the early one I’m most excited to see.  Rodriguez could also pocket roughly his annual salary in the way of a $1 million dollar bonus, so if he can escape the first-round match-up with Seager, he may steal the show.

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Then there is Polar Bear Pete Alonso, the back-to-back defending derby champion, who will be aiming to join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only MLB player to win the home run derby three times.  This man just lives to hit dingers, as evidenced by this quote.

"It's the most addicting feeling," Alonso said. "I mean, I can't get enough of it. I don't know if there's anyone that loves hitting homers more than I do."

Alonso will get Ronald Acuna Jr. in the first round, and Acuna will be looking at the revenge narrative after losing in the 2019 semi-final to Alonso.

Kyle Schwarber leads the field in home runs and has home run derby experience.  Juan Soto’s power is omnipresent.  Albert Pujols will look to turn back the hands of time and stage an upset few are expecting.  Ronald Acuna makes a return appearance to the derby, and Jose Ramirez of the Guardians will try to pull off a massive upset. 

I have money on two different players tonight, a little lighter than usual since we are talking about the Home Run Derby. 

MLB Home Run Derby Pick

I wrestled between Julio Rodriguez and Juan Soto here, and I think both have plenty of potential to walk away winners tonight.  The 21-year-old Rodriguez has age and recent power on his side, mixed with his reported 37 home runs in his first simulation, and I'm in.  Either way, the weather is nice for juiced balls and tonight should be fun to take in.

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Article Author


Born in Southern California, Brian lives and breathes sports.  He comes from a football family, with a number of family members who played professionally.  While Brian didn’t play professionally, he took his insights and dominated off the field. In fact, during the 2021 NFL season, his bets and parlays returned a whopping 117.84 units. Specializing in data analysis, Brian takes a unique approach to his NFL, NBA, and MLB bets. You can find him on Twitter at @the_bmatt.


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