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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here with his top MLB player prop bet for Friday. His pick comes from the Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays game with his sights set on righty Brad Keller.

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can We Bank on Brad Keller to Mow Down Tampa?

It felt good waking up to a full board of MLB bets this morning. The last few days have been tough on all of us, but we're back now. From here, we'll hit college football, then NFL, then NBA, and college hoops, leading us back to MLB. Today is basically the first day of that cycle. To celebrate, we should gamble. Lucky for us, we're flushed with action from MLB, so finding something to bet shouldn't be hard. It should be noted that we have to wait until the evening to watch our bets play out, but we can do that. We've been without action for almost a week now. We're battle-tested. Personally, I saw one name on the MLB slate, and I immediately knew what I was doing tonight. This isn't hard. It was confirmed to be a good idea after I did over 3000 undefeated mental simulations. I think we all know what needs to be done here.

Royals vs. Rays Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 22, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Royals vs Rays Odds

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Royals vs. Rays Line Movement

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105) (Bet $105 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings*

We're at DraftKings for this one since no other book on the planet has a number for our guy yet. I don't know if they're scared or what, but at some point, they're going to have to hang something. It's just how gambling works. Still, when the others get around to giving us numbers, I bet they are in line with what DraftKings has now, so we can just play there. After all, it's our day, and I feel like we're unstoppable at this point.

I know what you're thinking, and you're right. Brad Keller isn't a strikeout guy. He really never has been. Even in Little League (probably). Although, it's tough to imagine Keller not being able to mow people down as a kid. He had to be bigger than pretty much everyone. The guy is 6'5" tall and 255 pounds as a fully grown adult. Probably all muscle too. Still, numbers don't lie, and he only has 67 strikeouts in 97.2 innings of work this season. By definition, he's not a strikeout guy.

Still, I believe there's a strikeout guy in everyone just trying to get out, and in Brad Keller's case, he could be getting close. Over his last seven starts, Keller has sat down at least four guys in six of them. The time he didn't, he fanned three. That start was against the Houston Astros, so it doesn't even count. Those guys never strike out, so getting three of them is the equivalent to getting six or seven Tampa Bay Rays. It's all in the conversion chart I have in my brain.

The reason I bring up the Tampa Bay Rays is because that's who Keller and the Kansas City Royals will be hosting tonight. Only six teams have struck out more on the season than the Rays, so we're getting guys who whiff a little. We're talking 96 Ks in their last 335 at-bats. That's Los Angeles Angels bad people. There are at least seven guys that could be in the lineup tonight that are over 25% strikeout guys over the last couple of weeks. I don't know about you, but I'm opting for the Brad Keller Experience tonight. Feels right.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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