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The Mets and Padres play the final game in their series tonight. Can the Mets avoid a three-game sweep at home? Jason Radowitz answers.

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Prediction: Can Carlos Carrasco and the Mets Avoid the Sweep?

The San Diego Padres have rallied for two straight wins over the New York Mets, on the road, to start the second half of the season.

It's starting to become "Panic City" in New York, but the Mets are still 58-37 on the season and leading the NL East. However, a loss to the Padres tonight and another win from the Braves today would change the standings.

Can the Mets avoid a three-game sweep at home? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Sunday's game between the San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets.

Mets vs. Padres Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

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Mets vs. Padres Injury Report


Out: C James McCann (Oblique), 1B Dom Smith (Ankle)


Out: 1B Matt Beaty (Shoulder), OF Wil Myers (Knee), SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (Wrist)

Mets vs. Padres Line Movement

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

The Mets will look to avoid the sweep with Carlos Carrasco on the mound tonight. The right-hander has a 10-4 record with a 4.27 ERA on the season.

In the last 30 days, however, he's been better than his ERA. Carrasco has had a 3.80 xFIP with 25.6% of strikeouts, which is above average. He will walk batters close to 9% of the time, however, he’s still earning 51.7% of ground balls, allowing him to earn double play balls consistently.

On the other hand, the Padres are hitting a .135 ISO and wOBA of .290 in the last 30 days against righties. Although the Padres won two straight games over the Mets, they've only scored six runs themselves. Jake Cronenworth and Luke Voit have been the two consistent power hitters against righties. Other than that, there’s nothing to rave about with the Padres lineup. 

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The Padres will send out their All-Star pitcher, Joe Musgrove for tonight's game. Musgrove gets the chance to earn the Padres a sweep against one of the best NL teams in the league. Musgrove earned his All-Star appearance by going 8-2 along while holding a 2.42 ERA on the year.

In the last 30 days, the right-hander has had an xFIP of 4.45 with 20.4% of strikeouts. If we're being honest, analytically, he hasn’t been all that great in the last month of baseball He’s literally given up 54.1% of hard contact in those 30 days. 

Meanwhile, the Mets added a left-handed bat in Daniel Vogelbach in a trade with the Pirates. He'll get his first start for the Mets today against the right-hander.

Vogelbach has a .357 ISO and wOBA of .453 in his last 54 plate appearances against righties. Vogelbach is one of three Mets that have elevated numbers against righties in the last 30 days. Vogelbach's on the list with Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor.

With Vogelbach in the lineup, collectively, the Mets have a .162 ISO and wOBA of .300 in the last 30 days. Without him, this number is much lower.

Anyway, in reality, Carrasco has pitched better than Musgrove in the last 30 days. The Mets also have more power and a higher wOBA than the Padres against righties in the last 30 days.

Therefore, I like the Mets to salvage the series and get the win tonight.

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Pick

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Article Author


Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.


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