Tuesday MLB Expert Picks (7/26): Don't Miss These Early Leans and Best Bets

Tuesday MLB Expert Picks (7/26): Don't Miss These Early Leans and Best Bets

I'm going to start a new segment where I give out my early leans for the day and certain plays that I am looking at on the MLB slate. Who's on my list? Read on to find out.

Tuesday MLB Early Leans

1. Marlins F5/Full Game ML

Hunter Greene has had a very up and down season but one thing he has really struggled with this year is keeping the ball in the ballpark. He has given up a ton of homers and the Marlins have a lot of guys in their lineup with big power. With that being said, the marlins also strike out a lot so the main question is, will the Marlins be able to capitalize on his mistakes or will they go down swinging? Right now I am leaning towards the marlins being able to hit him hard. Pablo Lopez has a clear advantage over Greene and as long as the Marlins remain favorites and the line holds, I will likely be on the fish tonight in a bounce-back spot to even the series

2. Yankees F5/Full Game ML

The Yankees have been somewhat scuffling over the past 2-3 weeks for their standards. On the other side, the Mets have also really been struggling to score. This game features one of my favorite line dynamics as the Yankees are still favored even though Montgomery has a higher ERA than the Mets starter, Taijuan Walker. Walker has been pitching extremely well lately, especially at home, which is likely why this line is so low but I do think he is prime for some regression. It was at about this time last year that Walker started to regress after his hot start and we could see it again in the second half of this season. On the other hand, the Yankees have lost the last four games that Montgomery has started and have lost 10 games he has pitched in overall. Considering the Yankees only have 31 total losses, that’s a huge percentage and I have to think Montgomery and the Yankees will improve on that going forward.

3. Astros F5/Full Game ML or -1/1.5

The Astros laid an egg in their series opener against the Athletics as they got ambushed by a five-run fourth inning from the A’s. Oakland has been dreadful this year, especially offensively, so that was extremely surprising to them to open up the game like that. Now Oakland will start one of their best players in Frankie Montas vs the Astros' third/fourth starter in Luis Garcia and they are still close to -170 favorites. Montas has pitched well at home this season but Garcia has done some of his best work on the road this season as his road splits are considerably better than his performances at home. The Athletics as a whole have also performed much worse at home as they come into today with a home record of just 15-33. Very rare to see a team be that bad at home but it can’t be ignored this late in the season. The Astros offense should be able to muster at least two-three runs off Montas in the early going and I expect Garcia to have a solid start tonight against an Athletics offense that should regress.

*These are not official picks yet but are my top three early leans for tonight’s games*

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