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The Red Sox and Guardians are battling for the series in Fenway Park, with the series tied 1-1 heading into tonight's meeting. Who's going to take the lead tonight? Ben Rajavuori answers.

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Predictions: Can Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox Fix AL East Troubles?

The Red Sox and Guardians are battling for the series in Fenway Park, with the series tied 1-1 heading into tonight's meeting. The Guardians snapped a three-game losing streak last night in an 8-3 win over the Red Sox. The Red Sox, with yesterday's loss, are now 1-6 over their last seven and need to win this series if they have any playoff hopes.

The Red Sox dropped to last place in the AL East with last night's loss, with the Orioles moving in front by half a game. If there were ever a time for a much-needed win, tonight is it for the Red Sox. Here is my pick, prediction, and odds for the Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians game.

Red Sox vs Guardians Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 27, 2022
  • Start Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Nathan Eovaldi will start for the Red Sox tonight. Eovaldi is 4-3 with a 4.3 ERA and has had a back-and-forth season. He is coming off the worst outing of the season, allowing nine runs in 2.2 innings in the 5-28 loss to the Blue Jays. Eovaldi hasn't had many bad starts this year, though, and it's his most recent outing and his outing against the Astros on May 17th, where he allowed six runs in 1.2 innings, that has killed his ERA. His ERA is inflated by those two horrific outings. In his last two starts at home before the blow-up against the Jays, he pitched a complete game against the surprisingly good Orioles with only two earned runs, and before that, a 6.2-inning outing with two earned runs against the Mariners. Eovaldi tends to bounce back after a bad outing, and I think he does so again today.

Cal Quantrill will toe the rubber for the Guardians tonight. Quantrill is 7-5 with a 3.75 ERA on the season, but that ERA rises to 4.53 on the road. Quantrill has been serviceable in the lineup and doesn't do too much good or bad. You know you'll get 5-6 innings with 2-4 earned runs in most of his starts. Quantrill pitched an outing at home against the Red Sox back in June and went five innings with only two earned runs, but he was hit hard, just right at his defense. Quantrill hasn't branched out of the division in five starts now, and I think a night start in Fenway Park is a tough ask for anyone. I expect Quantrill to struggle some tonight.

The biggest takeaway from this year's Red Sox team is their troubles against the AL East. The Red Sox are 12-29 against the AL East this season, one of the worst division head-to-head records in the league. However, they are 37-20 when they play outside of the division. They are also 8-1 in their last nine against the AL Central. The Guardians are nearly the opposite. The Guardians are 25-21 against the AL Central, but they play worse when they get outside the division. The Guardians are 24-26 outside the AL Central and 7-11 specifically against the AL East.

The Red Sox are in desperation mode after dropping into last place in the AL East, and I expect them to come out focused tonight with the series on the line. This is an important part of their season, and Eovaldi has been reliable outside of a few bad starts. I think his inflated ERA has driven this price down, and the public is overreacting to his last outing against a red-hot Blue Jays team. Eovaldi has won his previous two outings against the Guardians, and the Guardians have lost all three games started by Quantrill when they face the Red Sox. Take Boston to move out of last place tonight (with an Orioles loss).

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pick

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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