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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here with his top MLB player prop bet for Thursday. His pick comes from the Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians game with his sights set on righty Triston McKenzie.

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Triston McKenzie Mow Down the Red Sox?

We've only got a few more days in July then we're pretty much on to football. That's just how the sports calendar works. Personally, I can't wait but there's something we can't forget about. That something is pitcher strikeout props. Even when we're knee-deep in NFL preseason and college football (end of August), we can't forget about the boys of summer.

Once we're done betting these, summer is officially over and nobody is trying to end summer early. You'd have to be an extreme psychopath to want something like that. One way to make these things something we want to bet for a little longer is to pick just winners. Literally find one or two every day that have no chance of losing. I've been doing it for years and I know for a fact it works. A good example is the one I found for us tonight. Let's get into my pick, prediction, and odds for the Red Sox vs Guardians game.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 28, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Red Sox vs Guardians Odds

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Red Sox vs. Guardians Line Movement

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pick

Triston McKenzie Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102) (Bet $100 to win $102)

*Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing*

We're at FanDuel since they're giving us plus money. DraftKings isn't horrible at 5.5 (-105) and BetMGM isn't either with 5.5 (-110). Still, why not just take the +102 and get on with our lives? It feels like the right thing to do. And don't forget, at FanDuel we can ladder so 7+(+200) isn't the worst idea either. We could even go 8+ (+390) or 9+ (+750). It all really depends on how awesome you want the day to be.

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

What can I say about Triston McKenzie that we don't already know? The man is already in my personal Hall of Fame. He's a valued Circle of Trust member and I'm guessing he's a pillar of his community. Probably a big soft guy too. Who knows? What I do know is he's flying under the radar at the moment with only 100 strikeouts in 107 innings pitched this season. Smart move by him since we all know he could just fan everyone and end up with 8.5 next to his name every day. That would suck.

The thing about McKenzie is there is he strikes out more batters when he throws more pitches. That's just science (and math). I think he'll throw 90+ tonight. That's important because, in the 12 games where Triston has thrown 90+ pitches, he's fanned at least six guys in nine of them. The only times he didn't was against the Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, and Chicago White Sox. All three of those teams are top 10 in MLB in strikeouts this season. Those starts don't even count. Everyone knows that.

Tonight McKenzie will see the Boston Red Sox which is a good thing. On the season they aren't exactly a strikeout team but that has changed recently. Over the last two weeks, only one team has struck out more than Boston. (That team has also played more games than the Red Sox in that span.) We're talking 103 strikeouts in 338 at-bats. That's over 30% if you are familiar with math. We could see a lineup with at least six guys that are over the 30% threshold tonight but even if we don't, McKenzie is still fanning at least six.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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