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Robbie Ray vs. Justin Verlander should be an interesting pitching matchup but today, we're fading Ray in this Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners matchup. Ben Rajavuori explains why this is the best course of action for tonight.
ANALYSIS

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Fade Robbie Ray and the Mariners

Astros vs Mariners Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 29, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners will kick off game two of the series from Minute Maid Park tonight, starting at 8:10 EST. The Astros are amid a three-game home winning streak and are 31-14 at home on the season overall. The Mariners have struggled against the Astros, going 18-42 in the last 60 meetings in Houston, and the Astros have now won the last four straight head-to-head matchups. Can the Astros continue their dominance tonight?

Justin Verlander is the starter for the Astros tonight, and the Ace has been on par. Verlander is 13-3 with a 1.86 ERA and .88 WHIP. The Astros are 6-2 this season when Verlander starts at home but are 6-1 in the last seven since his first home start of the year was a loss against the Blue Jays. Verlander is very familiar with the Mariners, and this will be his sixth start of the year already against the team. He is 4-1 against the Mariners this season, and he has won both home starts against the Mariners with lines of 6.2 innings with two earned runs and seven innings with one earned run. Verlander has a 2.6 ERA on the season versus the Mariners, and that ERA drops to 2.04 at home. I expect him to be dominant once again against a team he has held in check for years.

Robbie Ray starts for the Mariners tonight, and he has been lackluster. He is 8-7 with a 3.9 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Ray's ERA rises to 5.09 on the road, and he has been hit hard by the Astros previously. Ray has eight career starts against the Astros, and he has a 6.39 ERA in those starts, his highest ERA against any team. Jose Altuve is 11-19 off Ray with two home runs, and Kyle Tucker is 4-7 off Ray with two home runs as well. Ray's most recent outing was a start against the Astros, and he went three innings with six earned runs. That was his second outing against the Astros this season, and in the first, he went five innings with three earned runs. That's a 10.1 ERA over his two starts this season versus the Astros. I expect him to struggle again tonight.

If the Mariners win this game or make it close, I think it's later in the game. They have been pulling off a lot of close wins and comebacks after the fifth, and the Astros have been one of the best teams at covering the first-five line this season. The Astros are 30-12-3 this season covering the first-half line, and I expect them to cover again behind their ace.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Pick

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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