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The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Philadelphia Phillies for game two of their four-game series. John Hyslop is here to share his top MLB player prop bet for Friday. He's eying lefty Bailey Falter.
ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Bailey Falter Sit Down the Pirates?

If you want good things in life, you have to work for them. Everybody knows that. Nobody is just going to give you anything. It's always been like that and it will always be like that. At least that's what I've thought every single day of my life (I'm 44) up until today. Yeah, my whole thought process changed when I saw one baseball line for tonight. We legit no longer have to work hard for stuff anymore.

The sportsbooks have decided that work is canceled and they'll just subsidize everyone's lives. It's crazy. They're literally just giving money away to anyone that wants it. It's the opposite of what I try to teach my kids but it is what it is. I was given this new world, but I didn't make it. When you see the line I'm talking about, you'll see what I mean. Let's dive into my pick, prediction, and odds for the Pirates vs Phillies game.

Pirates vs. Phillies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 29, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Pirates vs. Phillies Line Movement

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Bailey Falter Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

*Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing*

We're at BetMGM for this one since they are being very reasonable with the -110 price tag. It kind of hurts because I saw 4.5 (+116) last night on FanDuel but I was watching For All Mankind so I couldn't do anything about it. (If you've never seen that show, you kind of need to pay attention. I do and I'm still kind of lost.) It also should be noted that DraftKings is showing 4.5 (-120) so they are an option as well.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The haters are going to say that I like Falter because of his hair but as usual, the haters are lying. That's all they do. You can't trust them. Obviously, the guy has glorious locks that most only dream of but he can also sit guys down. We're talking about a career 63 whiff in 66.2 innings guy here. I love the guys that can toe the "one strikeout per innings pitched" line and this kid has done it so far. Those guys make it so hard for the books to price.

So far this season, Falter has only started six times and most of those starts don't even count because he was a bullpen guy getting stretched out. For example, he's had two starts where he had a pitch count in the 60s (still had at least four Ks in each game [nbd]). In his other four starts, he threw between 78-82 pitches and got home on 4.5 in two of those starts. The times he didn't was against the New York Mets and Washington Nationals so those starts don't even count. He actually fanned six Nationals in another start so there is that to consider too (we'll count that one).

Today Falter gets what I like to call "the easiest team in the world to sit down." I'm not kidding when I say that I think I could strike out at least one Pittsburgh Pirate my first time through the order. I'm serious. You could too. Over their last 195 at-bats, they've fanned 60 times. That's horrific. There are like six guys that could be in the order tonight that are all 34+% strikeout guys over that span. I don't even know how that's possible. This Falter guy is going to look like Nolan Ryan out there tonight.

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Article Author

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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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