San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Jakob Junis Keep The Cubs Quiet?
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Jakob Junis Keep The Cubs Quiet?
On a day full of day games, we go with the latest game on the slate, time to lose some sleep. Here is my pick, prediction, and odds for the San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs game.
Giants vs. Cubs Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: July 30, 2022
- Game Time: 9:05 pm ET
- Where to Watch: NBCSBA, MARQ
Click Here for Giants vs Cubs Odds
Giants vs. Cubs Line Movement
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Pick
1u - Jakob Junis u2.5 Earned Runs (-135) (Bet $135 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
I’ll get the negative out of the way so we can focus exclusively on why I like this bet the rest of the way. For whatever reason, Jakob Junis has way better away stats than home stats and this is a home game for him. Junis holds a 4.03 home ERA and a 1.78 road ERA. I would expect these numbers to end the year closer to one another in the three’s somewhere and it starts here tonight. The Cubs have only put 3+ earned runs on a starting pitcher three times in their last 13 games. Those pitchers were Bryse Wilson, Bailey Falter, and Kyle Gibson. Junis holds a better ERA than all three of them.
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction
Although Junis seems to perform worse at home he has hit this number against much better competition at home before. Against the Mets, Dodgers, and Cardinals he allowed two or fewer earned runs amongst other teams he has accomplished this against. Junis has the cool upside of getting pulled early too and getting us a cheap win. He could certainly go into the 90s in pitch count and we should go in expecting that but even in his last start he only threw 4.1 innings and just over 60 pitches. You would think he was getting shelled or left with an injury but neither was the case, he was done after allowing just one earned run. That would be fun to see something similar happen tonight.
Junis is under this prop in 9/11 but one of the misses he didn’t even start, he entered the game in the seventh with a major lead and got hit pretty hard by the Brewers. Junis has been his slider 52% of the time and that is by far his most effective pitch. Junis doesn’t have the deepest history against the Cubs but four of the batters have faced him throughout their careers and in their combined 20 at-bats they haven’t gotten any runs on him and have only mustered up five hits. I know the splits are scary but the hit rate is great for him on the season and the Cubs failure to hang 3+ on starting pitching as of late. Trust the numbers and in Junis we trust!
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