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We’ve been betting these almost exclusively lately, and they’re paying off. If it isn’t broken then why fix it? Here is my best bet for Tuesday's series opener between the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers focused on Corbin Burnes.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Picks, Odds: Can Corbin Burnes Shut Down the Pirates?

Pirates vs Brewers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: August 2, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Pirates vs Brewers Odds

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Pirates vs. Brewers Line Movement

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

1u - Corbin Burnes To Record A Win (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)

*Odds Available at PointsBet*

This has become a new theme of ours. We see a favorite at -250 or greater odds and take the pitcher to record a win if they have a good bullpen and an ace that throws 5+ innings on the regular. Corbin Burnes has thrown 5+ innings in 18/20 games which is good for 90% of his starts. More importantly, he has shown to dominate these Pittsburgh bats already. In his two start against them this year, he allowed just one run through 6 innings and recorded a win in his last start, and allowed 2 runs through 7 innings to obtain his first win of the year. His record is 2-0 vs Pittsburgh this season.

Although the Brewers just dealt Josh Hader they still have a bullpen that should close the door for us if Burnes leaves the game in line for a win. Burnes out prop is 20.5, so Vegas thinks him going 7 innings isn’t out of the question which should bode well for us. In order to get the win we need to see some run support for our guy Corbin and we have quite the guy to pick on. Bryse Wilson is the perfect guy to pick on here. He has a 6.31 ERA and an 8.20 ERA in home games.

Wilson has shown to be somewhat effective versus this Milwaukee offense in his two starts but not enough for me to think that he outduels an elite talent like Burnes. Another tidbit I really like is that Burnes is strangely better on the road. In 9 away games on the season we have seen Burnes deal on the road for a 1.57 ERA. Burnes is also much better in night games. He has a 1.93 ERA in night games compared to almost a 3 ERA in day games. Every trend makes you believe he should deal tonight. The Pirates hit .219 against righties and face one of the best there is to offer. Once again, we will not overthink, and we will take this train as far as it takes us.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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