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We’re on a play my dog could have made, but as long as it wins, we are happy. Josh Gayle has you covered with an Astros vs. Guardians pick.

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction: Can Framber Valdez Continue His Dominance?

Framber Valdez will take the ball for the Houston Astros against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Valdez and the Astros are looking to win their second game of this four-game set. Come check the odds for the Astros vs. Guardians.

Astros vs. Guardians Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds

Date: Friday, August 5

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET

Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click here for the latest Guardians vs. Astros odds

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Astros vs. Guardians Line Movement

Astros vs Guardians Prediction

Where do I begin with this one? In order to record a win, a pitcher must pitch 5+ innings and exit the game with the lead and that lead can never be relinquished. The Astros have the top bullpen in the MLB in terms of ERA and Valdez has gone 5+ innings in 18/20, but more importantly, in 17 straight games. The only reason early in the year he wasn’t hitting this number was due to a short spring training and an undisclosed pitch limit. Valdez has 8 wins in his last 14 starts, so he’s been winnings more times than not and has a good chance to do it again tonight.

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Cleveland is a good team, they are above .500, but we found ourselves betting against them for the second consecutive day. For Valdez to record a win, he is going to need some run support and this feels like a day the Astros could do just that. The Guardians are starting Hunter Gaddis, he has never pitched a game in the majors. Gaddis held a 4.07 ERA in AA but looked better when coming up to AAA, even though it was a small sample size. The Houston Astros are a different beast, however, and should give him the “welcome to the MLB” moment. I’m expecting at least 3 runs personally and that would be great insurance for Valdez.

Valdez is better on the road for whatever reason and it’s not particularly close. In home games, Valdez has a 4.01 ERA and in away games, he holds a 2.04. These Cleveland bats are 6-28 lifetime against him, which is only good for a .214 average. That seems about right because these bats struggle against lefties.

On the season, the Guardians hit just .221 against southpaws and they get one of the best the league has to offer tonight. In his lone game against Cleveland this year, we saw Valdez go 7 innings and record a win. My top pivot for people without this market would be a double result, but try your best to get this market because it could provide extra innings to get a lead after the 5th. I think the Astros become the third team to the 70-win club tonight, let's roll!

Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Pick

Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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