Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Prediction: Will Tony Gonsolin Quiet Padres Early?

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Prediction: Will Tony Gonsolin Quiet Padres Early?

It's a battle of NL heavyweights as the new-look Padres hit the road to take on the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium. The three-game series will give us insight as to whether the new additions to the Padres lineup are enough to compete with the 2020 World Series champions, although they are still missing star shortstop Fernando Tatis. The Dodgers are still the favorites to win the World Series, but many people seem to think the Padre's updated lineup is enough to compete. So who will take the first meeting since the all-star break? Let's check out the odds for the Dodgers vs. Padres.

Dodgers vs. Padres Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds

Date: August 5, 2022

Game Time: 10:10 pm ET

Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for the Dodgers and Padres Odds

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The new additions to the Padres lineup seem to be already paying dividends. Brandon Drury, who was acquired from the Reds, hit a grand slam in his first game with the Padres on August 3rd. Josh Bell, who was acquired from the Nationals, is 2-5 over his first two games with three walks for a .625 OBP. Juan Soto, who was also acquired from the Nationals, is 3-8 over his first two games with two walks for a .500 OBP. The Padres did lose yesterday, but that is due mostly to the pitching, which gave up seven runs to the Colorado lineup. Pitching could be an issue again today.

Sean Manaea takes the mound tonight and is 6-5 with a 4.25 ERA on the season. One thing that is true for Manaea is that he gets shelled by the Dodgers. In his only start against the Dodgers so far this season, he gave up six runs in 4.1 innings. Manaea is 1-3 against the Dodgers in his career, and part of the reason is his pitch selection. Manaea throws his sinker 62% of the time, making it his most used pitch by far, and the Dodgers hit fastballs exceptionally well. The Dodgers have hit sinkers better than any pitch this season, and I think this is how they hit Manaea for two home runs in 4.1 innings in their only meeting this season. The wind will be blowing out tonight, which only helps the Dodgers hitters against Manaea. Manaea has also been an unreliable first-five bet all year, as he is 4-10-5 on the first-five innings line this season. His counterpart tonight, Tony Gonsolin, is quite the opposite.

Tony Gonsolin has been on fire. Gonsolin is 13-2-4 in his 19 starts on the first-five innings line and has a 2.41 ERA on the season. Gonsolin was hit hard a bit in July, posting a 4.4 ERA in the month, but he has been excellent at home all season. He is 7-1 at home with a 1.67 ERA. He has also faced the Padres once this season already, and he went 7.2 innings with one earned run. The Padres have upgraded their lineup a bit since that last meeting, but Gonsolin is one of the best in the league when pitching in Dodgers Stadium. I'm less worried for Gonsolin than Manaea with the weather tonight because Gonsolin has gotten more ground balls with his pitch arsenal.

The Padres have a scary lineup, probably better than the Dodgers once Tatis returns, but the pitching situation heavily favors the Dodgers here. The Dodgers hit Manaea's best pitch well, and I expect them to shell him again as they did in the only other meeting this season. Manaea has been one of the least profitable first-five bets this season, so I will gladly fade him against one of the best home pitchers in the league. Take the Dodgers to be ahead after five tonight.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Pick

• Dodgers F5 ML (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)