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The MLB slate today is stacked. Ben Rajavuori is here to break down this one-plus hit parlay. Check out who's in this plus odds parlay.
ANALYSIS

Wednesday MLB Parlay: Cash In With This Expert's Plus-Money MLB Best Bet (8/10)

There is a new player model that I have been working on that has shown excellent results since the beginning of the second half of the MLB season. One of the most effective ways I have found to use the model is to predict who will get a hit on the slate built into a parlay. All the players below already have a high rating for today, so instead of spitting out one number from the model, I have extra reasoning on top of their already high rating for their respective matchups. Let's break down today's parlay.

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Leg One: Rafael Devers 1+ Hit (Red Sox)

Devers faces Kyle Wright of the Braves tonight. In four plate appearances against Wright, Devers is 2-4 with a double and a home run. The most notable part of this matchup is that Devers is a lefty facing a righty pitcher. Devers has been killing righties all year, posting a .319 average with a 1.014 OPS. Conversely, he is hitting .290 with a .798 OPS against left-handed pitching. Devers has the third-highest OPS and fifth-highest average in the league against right-handed pitchers. Devers went 0-4 last night and has been a little quiet in August so far, which gives me all the more reason to believe he is due for a big night. He's also a much better hitter in Fenway Park. Devers should record at least one base tonight.

Leg Two: Yordan Alvarez 1+ Hit (Astros)

There are two men in the MLB who have a higher OPS against right-handed pitching than Rafael Devers: Aaron Judge and Jordan Alvarez. Alvarez is first overall in the league with a 1.109 OPS and .318 average against righty pitching. He faces a righty tonight in Glenn Otto, who is 2-4 on the road with a 4.02 ERA. Alvarez has ten plate appearances against Otto and is 3-7 with three walks and two doubles. Alvarez has gone hitless for three straight games now, and this is a perfect opportunity to get back in the hit column. Alvarez is not someone that is easy to keep down, and he should record at least one base against Otto tonight as he has slaughtered Rangers pitching all season.

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Leg Three: Nolan Arenado 1+ Hit (Cardinals)

The ex-Rocky is back in Coors Field. Arenado played for the Rockies for eight years before leaving for St. Louis in 2021. Arenado has been highly successful with the Cardinals and is batting .300 this season with a .919 OPS. Arenado is batting .246 against lefties but has a much higher OPS of .984. Arenado is 1-2 against Kyle Freeland, and Freeland has struggled against righty hitters. Arenado has been hot in August and has a hit in all seven games this month. He has a hit in six of eight games against the Rockies since leaving and knows the ballpark better than any other Cardinal. The wind is also blowing out to center in a park that already favors hitters.

Leg Four: Randal Grichuk 1+ Hit (Rockies)

Randal Grichuk is one of the hottest hitters in the MLB at the moment. Over the last two weeks, Grichuk is batting .396 with a 1.108 OPS, which is the fifth-highest in the league. Grichuk is fresh off a 5-5 game last night in a blowout win for the Rockies. Grichuk is 4-11 against Jose Quintana, which is a .364 average. Grichuk is batting .331 against lefties and .237 against righties. He also is batting .326 at home this season. He has a hit in 11 of the last 13 games at Coors Field. Grichuk is destined to get at least one hit tonight off Quintana or the bullpen.

Wednesday MLB Four-Leg 1+ Hit Parlay @ +213 (Bet $100 to win $213)

  • Leg One: Rafael Devers 1+ Hit (Red Sox)
  • Leg Two: Yordan Alvarez 1+ Hit (Astros)
  • Leg Three: Nolan Arenado 1+ Hit (Cardinals)
  • Leg Four: Randal Grichuk 1+ Hit (Rockies)

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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