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WeBeatTheSpread is back with a pick between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. Come find out this Max Fried pick and see why he's taking the southpaw.
ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Prediction: Backing Max Fried In Series Finale

The heated series between the top teams in the NL East comes to a close tonight when Jacob DeGrom and Max Fried take the mound in Truist Park in Atlanta. The Mets lead the season series 9-6 against the Braves and are currently ahead by 4.5 games in the division. The Braves only have one more series against the Mets this season, so this game looms large for the fate of the NL east. So what is the best bet in Atlanta tonight? Check out our prediction, pick, and odds for the Braves vs. Mets game.

Braves vs. Mets Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: August 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:20 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: SNY, MLB.TV

Click Here for Braves vs. Mets Odds

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Braves vs. Mets Line Movement

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Prediction

Tonight we will be backing a player prop on a pitcher. I bet if I told you I was doing an article on a pitcher prop between Jacob DeGrom and Max Fried, you would think it would be on DeGrom's strikeout line, right? Well, the player we are actually backing in this spot is Max Fried. Fried has been overlooked in strikeout spots this season mainly because he isn't the flashiest swing-and-miss type of pitcher. His strikeout numbers are average, but by no means are they bad. Fried is an excellent pitcher, but he usually gets most of his outs on bad contact rather than strikeouts. However, that doesn't mean there is never a time to bet on the over for his strikeout line, and tonight is an excellent opportunity.

Max Fried is 10-4 on the season with a 2.6 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He is excellent at keeping the bases empty and limiting walks, ultimately leading to less stressful pitches with fewer runners in scoring position. Because of this, he is able to pitch at least six innings in almost all of his starts, and his average innings pitched this season is 6.1, but even higher at home, where he has a 2.49 ERA.

Fried isn't a guy who is going to fill up the score box with strikeouts but has been surprisingly good at hitting his line this season because he is often overlooked. Tonight, his line against the Mets is 4.5 strikeouts. This is a number that Fried has surpassed in 16 of his 22 starts, good for a 73% hit rate. His numbers improve further in Truist Park, where he has hit five or more strikeouts in 10 of his 13 starts. In all three of those misses, he barely missed with four strikeouts. He has also pitched very well in this spot against the Mets. In the last three seasons, Fried has had eight starts against the Mets, and he has hit five or more strikeouts in seven of those eight games. Three of those were at home, and he posted 8,7, and 5 strikeouts in those respective starts.

The Mets aren't typically a team to rack up strikeouts every game, as they are fourth in the league in strikeouts per game on the season. However, they have been worse in this series against the Mets and have averaged 8.33 strikeouts per game. Max Fried has hit over 4.5 strikeouts in six straight starts against the Mets and has only gone under this line in three of his 13 starts at home this season. I expect a pitcher's duel in Truist Park tonight between DeGrom and Fried with the total as low as 7. Take Fried to get deep into this game and notch at least 5 K's.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Pick

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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