Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can St. Louis Get To Madison Bumgarner?
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can St. Louis Get To Madison Bumgarner?
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the St. Louis Cardinals for game two of their three-game series. The Cardinals face Diamondback ace Madison Bumgarner. Can they take advantage of him? Josh Gayle shares his pick, prediction, and odds for Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds
- When: August 20, 2022
- Time: 8:10 PM EDT
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Click Here for Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Odds
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Line Movement
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick
1u - Cardinals o2.5 Team Total First 5 Innings (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Whenever I play these I feel bad because it’s not widely available to everyone so allow me to give my top pivot before getting into the analysis. I don’t want any exposure to Dakota Hudson pitching for the Cardinals because he’s a much better home pitcher than road guy so we’ll still want to only focus on the bats here. My top pivot would be just taking the Cardinals' o4.5 Team Total for the complete game. Assuming the Cardinals score exactly three runs in the first five, you'll just need an additional two runs. With Cardinals being the away team you are guaranteed to bat in the ninth inning and the Diamondbacks hold the 10th worst bullpen in the MLB in terms of ERA.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
So why do we like the Cardinals bats so much today? The Cardinals against lefties are one of my favorite trends in the league. The Cards bat .269 against lefties and more importantly hit for power against them. They face Madison Bumgarner today who has allowed 21 runs in his last 23.1 innings pitched. Bumgarner has been allowing plenty of hits so this has potential to hit with a three-run bomb or grand slam in one innings. MadBum has allowed 140 hits in 127.2 innings pitched on the season. Allowing over 1.1 hits an inning and facing a team like this should be cause for disaster.
Bumgarner strangely pitched well against St. Louis in his lone start vs them this year but I don’t envision him replicating that. The Cardinals' bats lifetime against Bumgarner are 62-212 against him which is good for a .292 average. Not to mention Bumgarner has walked 24 times and allowed 32 RBI’s to these guys. We just need three runs and the Cardinals offense has been moving lately. St. Louis has scored 68 runs over their last 11 games, which averages out to 6.18 runs per game and would imply that three runs in five innings aren’t crazy to ask for. Bumgarner's outs prop is 17.5 so Vegas thinks he goes six innings at the most and his earned runs prop has juice on the o3.5, we just need three here and have the same limited juice at a discount, let's roll!