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WeBeatTheSpread is back with another pick between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. Come find out who he's backing in tonight's AL East showdown.

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Pick, Prediction: Can Boston Knock Around Kevin Gausman?

The Red Sox enter the series finale with the task of avoiding another sweep at home from an AL East foe. Every article I have done on the Red Sox this season mentioned their trouble when playing divisional games. They are now 16-34 against the AL East and have lost five straight against the Blue Jays. The Jays appear to have the pitching advantage in this matchup tonight, as they will send out Kevin Gausman, while the Red Sox will start Kutter Crawford. Even with all of this, I think there is an angle on the Red Sox tonight. Let's break down my prediction, picks, and odds for the contest.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds

Date: August 25, 2022

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET

Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds

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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Line Movement

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

The Blue Jays came into Boston and took a three-game sweep in July and are now threatening to repeat the dominance. The last time Gausman pitched in Boston, the Blue Jays won 28-5. Kevin Gausman has had an excellent season so far and has a 2.99 ERA in 23 starts. His road ERA is even better at 1.65. This has undoubtedly been his best season since he entered the league in 2013. However, as good as he's been, this hasn't translated to team success as much as it should.

The Blue Jays are 12-11 when Gausman starts, despite him being one of their best pitchers. Gausman has a few starts against the Red Sox this season, and the Blue Jays have won all four, but the Red Sox hit him around quite a bit. In fact, the Red Sox lineup tonight is a combined 43-133 off Gausman, good for a .323 average. I think those hits finally turn into some runs tonight, as this will be their fifth time facing Gausman this season.

Kutter Crawford hasn't been very good this season, but I believe in him tonight. His ERA is inflated by a few terrible road outings, including his last start, where he gave up nine runs in 3.2 innings against the Orioles. However, he hasn't been that bad at home recently. His most recent home starts were pretty good, as he went six innings against the Yankees with two earned runs, 5.2 innings against the Guardians with one earned run, and six innings against the Blue Jays with three earned runs. He's not the best the Red Sox have to offer, but I think his inflated ERA doesn't tell the entire story in this spot.

The Blue Jays are the least profitable bet on the first five-run line this season. They are 53-68 on the run line for -31.65 units. The Red Sox, conversely, are 64-60on the run line for +.65 units. I think this line is way too high tonight. People see Gausman with a 1.65 road ERA and a 4-0 record against the Red Sox this season and Kutter Crawford, who has a 5.14 ERA. However, the Blue Jays have not been performing well on the first-half lines and have rather relied on an excellent bullpen. The Red Sox have one of the worst bullpens in the league. I am going to take the half-run with the Red Sox in the first half, as we are being given an excellent number from the books. The public is all over the Blue Jays tonight, and they might win this game, but if they do, I think it will be with their bullpen, just like last night.

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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