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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here with his top MLB player prop bet for Tuesday. His pick comes from the Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates game with his sights set on Mitch Keller.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Mitch Keller Mow Down the Brewers?

I'm going to level with you. Thursday will begin like five days in a row of football and we all know what that means. We're going to totally forget about the boys of summer and all they have done for us this year. Let's not act like we'll be sweating out baseball games when there are footballs flying around our television screens. It just doesn't happen. But instead of denying the inevitable, why not just embrace it? Why not take these last two days (today and tomorrow) and pretend like it's July again? That's what I'm doing and if we're being honest, it feels good. It feels even better knowing that tonight is in the hands of a guy who has been in the Circle of Trust many times since coming into the league a few years ago. Feels right. Let's get into my prediction, pick, and odds for the Brewers vs Pirates game.

Brewers vs Pirates Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: August 30, 2022
  • Start Time: 8:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Brewers vs Pirates Odds

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Brewers vs Pirates Line Movement


Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

Mitch Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118) (Bet $100 to win $118)

*Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing*

We're at FanDuel for this one but there's more involved than usual. You see, DraftKings has 3.5 (-155), BetMGM has 3.5 (-160) and Barstool has 3.5 (-165) for this guy. We're going to need our brains for this thing. There's no way around it. The way I see it, this guy is all over the place. He's a guy who will get you seven or he'll get you one. For that reason, I'm not laying $155 to get $100. I'd much rather go $100 to get $118 and sweat that last one. Could it come back to haunt me? Of course, but that's just how this game we play works.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Baseball Mitch is an interesting guy. As I said, he could get you seven (I've actually seen him get eight before) or he could get you one. Those are my favorite types because the books have no clue what to do with him. What the hell would you do with him if you were the books? See what I mean? There's just no good answer for Mitch Keller when his name comes up for a start. It is what it is.

The haters are going to say that this guy is a bum since he's only hit this number once in his last five starts. Haters never have anything nice to say. The thing is, he just hit this number last time out. And those other four starts, they don't even count! Those outings were against teams that weren't really striking out much at the time (Boston, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Baltimore). Who in their right mind would have had Mitch against those teams? Certainly not us. We're smarter than that.

Tonight, Baseball Mitch has the Milwaukee Brewers which is probably a good thing. Over the last two weeks, only one team in MLB has struck out more than Milwaukee. We're talking 127 whiffs in 439 at-bats. That's not great. They're also hitting .226 in that span. We could be catching them at the right time. And what the haters won't tell you is that Baseball Mitch already sat seven of these guys down in one game earlier this season so he knows how to throw to these people. And he did it in their park so he's not afraid to go into the belly of the beast and take what's his. If this isn't the greatest play of all time, it's at least top three.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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