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The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Boston Red Sox in a new series that begins tonight. Can the Orioles earn their 80th win? Jason Radowitz answers.

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Jordan Lyles Lead Orioles to 80th Win?

You can never say never. The Baltimore Orioles are four games back from the final AL Wild Card spot with a little over a week to go in the MLB regular season. The Orioles likely won't make the playoffs with the way things are looking. But they're not eliminated yet. The Orioles will take on the Boston Red Sox in a new series that begins tonight. Boston has already been eliminated after losing five straight games. But that hasn't stopped the Red Sox from being favorites, at home, in tonight's matchup. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Monday's game between the Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: September 26, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: NESN/MSN2
  • Run Line: Red Sox (-130), Yankees -1.5 (+110)
  • Total: Over 8 (-115), Under 8 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Yankees (-175), Red Sox (+150)

Click Here for Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds

Red Sox vs. Orioles Injury Report

Red Sox

Questionable: 2B Christian Arroyo (Illness)

Out: 2B Jeter Downs (Ankle), 1B Eric Hosmer (Back), 2B Jose Peraza (Undisclosed), SS Trevor Story (Heel)


Questionable: 2B Ramon Urias (Neck)

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

The Orioles will look to try and stay in the AL Wild Card race with Jordan Lyles on the mound tonight. Lyles is 11-11 with a 4.50 ERA on the season. However, in the last 30 days, Lyles has had a 4.93 xFIP with 14.6% of strikeouts. Things look a bit worse until you dig in. Lyles has walked just 5.2% of batters in that same time frame. He's also induced 49.3% of ground balls. On top of that, he's holding teams to a BABIP of .211 while allowing just 29.3% of fly balls. Lyles is allowing a little bit of power to righties, giving up a .200 ISO through his last 48 righties. Lyles has been worse against righties, but the Red Sox righties are only hitting a .174 ISO compared to their righties, who are hitting a .227 ISO. Boston has also hit 48.6% of ground balls against righties over the last 30 days with their projected lineup. That should work out in Lyles' favor knowing he's inducing about the same amount of ground balls in the previous 30 days.

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On the other hand, Connor Seabold will man the mound for Boston. He's 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA on the season. He's currently holding a 5.96 xFIP over 22 plate appearances. Seabold has allowed 25% of line drives while also inducing just 25% of ground balls. He's also facing an Orioles lineup that has hit 38.3% of ground balls along with 22.3% of line drives. The Orioles have a ton of power in the middle of their order with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle all hitting a high ISO against righties over the last 30 days. Even Terrin Vavra and Kyle Stowers have a high wOBA against righties towards the bottom of the Orioles' lineup. I'll ride with Baltimore as they continue to hope for a miracle in the AL Wild Card race.

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Pick

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Article Author


Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.


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