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MLB expert and handicapper Jason Radowitz is back with his top MLB bets and parlay picks for Thursday's slate. He breaks down his two parlays for us here with his top moneyline and total runs picks.
ANALYSIS

MLB Parlay Picks for Thursday: Cash In With This Expert's +567 Parlay

Due to popular demand, we're adding an article at Oddschecker that consists of two parlays. I'm going to add two different parlays, one being a moneyline parlay and the other being a total parlay in the MLB daily. You can always mix and match these parlays where you see the value! Head to the OddsChecker MLB Odds grid to see complete odds for every game today on the board.

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MLB Parlay Picks (+428) (Bet $100 to win $428)

  • Phillies (-195)
  • Rays (-115)
  • Angels -1.5 (-115)

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on Javier Assad of the Chicago Cubs tonight. Assad has had a 5.32 xFIP over the last 30 days with 13.1% of walks. After losing last night, the Phillies are now leading the final Wild Card spot by .5 games in the National League. Every game is a must-win for the Phillies now, and they've got a great matchup to go with it. They'll send out Ranger Suarez, who has earned 58.5% of ground balls and has limited line drives to under 15%. Take the Phillies.

The Rays will pitch Jeffrey Springs. He's another lefty with high strikeouts, low walks, and a low line drive rate. He'll face a Guardians team that already clinched their division. The projected lineup has a .085 ISO against lefties. On the other hand, Cal Quantrill will get the call for the Guardians. He's had a great year but still has a 4.81 xFIP with 18.6% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. He's allowed more righties to get on base recently and will take on a Rays lineup with a .306 wOBA with its righties. That'll be enough to win the game.

Lastly, Shohei Ohtani will take the mound to go up against Cole Irvin. This is the most significant mismatch of the day. Ohtani has a 3.75 xFIP in the last 30 days, while Irvin has a 6.03 xFIP over the previous 30 days. I'll take the lineup with Mike Trout and Ohtani going up against Irvin.

MLB Total Runs Parlay Picks (+567) (Bet $100 to win $567)

  • Royals vs. Tigers Under 7.5 (-115)
  • Orioles vs. Red Sox Over 8.5 (-115)
  • Rangers vs. Mariners Over 7 (-110)

The Royals will pitch Jon Heasley, who has been up and down this season. He's held righties to a low wOBA and ISO, but lefties have a bit of a higher average in both categories. Still, he's limited hard contact and has a BABIP of .230 in the last 30 days going up against a bad Tigers offense. Meanwhile, the Royals have five players striking out at least 27.8% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days. That's not good news going up against Eduardo Rodriguez. Take the under.

Nathan Eovaldi is back on the mound for the first time since August 12. He allowed a lot of ISO to both sides of the plate before landing on the injured list. Baltimore has done well-limiting ground balls and has hit a .196 ISO against righties in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Mike Baumann has a 4.34 xFIP with just 14.8% of strikeouts. He's facing a Boston lineup with a .354 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days. Let's take the over.

Although Jon Gray has been solid recently, the Mariners are hitting a .242 ISO and wOBA of .348 against righties over the last 30 days. The total is sitting at 7. They'll need to contribute a couple of runs with Marco Gonzales on the mound tonight. Gonzales has a 5.59 xFIP with 12% strikeouts in the last 30 days. He's also facing a Rangers lineup with five batters hitting a .364 wOBA or better in the previous 30 days against lefties. I'll take the over in this game as well.

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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