Sep 30, 12:13pm | 5 min read

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Merrill Kelly Earn 14th Win?

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Jason Radowitz has you covered with an MLB bet between the San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. Come get his Giants vs. Diamondbacks prediction, pick, and odds.

ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Merrill Kelly Earn 14th Win?

The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks are playing for absolutely nothing tonight. Both teams will finish around .500 without clinching the playoffs.

Arizona probably overachieved this season. The pitching staff had some great outings and surprised a lot of folks. Meanwhile, the Giants won the NL West last season, and the expectation was that they'd be fighting for it again this year. That was far from reality.

However, I still see value in tonight's game between these two teams.

Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Friday's game between the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: September 30, 2022
Game Time: 10:15 pm ET
Where to Watch: NBCSBA/BSAZ
Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190), Giants -1.5 (+160)
Total: O/U 7 (-110)
Moneyline: Giants (-135), Diamondbacks (+115)

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Injury Report

Diamondbacks

Out: SS Nick Ahmed (Shoulder)

Giants

Out: 1B Brandon Belt (Knee), OF Luis Gonzalez (Back), 2B Tommy La Stella (Neck), SS Donovan Walton (Shoulder)

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Alex Cobb will take the mound for the Giants, holding a 6-7 record with a 3.67 ERA. Cobb has been a bright spot for the Giants, except he's only carrying six wins the entire year.

He's holding a 3.89 xFIP over the last 30 days and has induced over 60% of ground balls in that time frame. He's also limited line drives to 16.7%.

Cobb isn't earning a high amount of strikeouts, but he's facing an Arizona lineup that has struck out 21.2% of the time. Eight of the nine batters have struck out at least 19.4% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.

On top of that, Arizona's projected lineup has hit over 50% of ground balls. That's never good when facing a ground ball pitcher like Cobb. Only two batters have hit under 45% of ground balls against righties in the last 30 days.

Still, Daulton Varsho, Pavin Smith, Jake McCarthy, Christian Walker, and Corbin Carroll have all hit righties well over the last month.

Meanwhile, Merrill Kelly will take the hill for the Diamondbacks. He's currently at 13-7 with a 3.13 ERA on the season.

Kelly has been one of the more surprising pitchers this season. We saw glimpses of his potential last year, but he put it all together this year.

Kelly has a 4.24 xFIP in the last 30 days, but he's struck out 26.2% of batters in that same time frame. Lefties are hitting a .387 ISO with a wOBA of .339 against Kelly in their last 68 plate appearances.

The Giants will have at least five lefties in the lineup. Those lefties, including Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, and Jason Vosler, have hit a .214 ISO and wOBA of .341 against righties over the last 30 days.

Kelly will earn strikeouts, but the Giants will capitalize if he makes a mistake. In the last 30 days, Cobb has pitched better and has the better matchup against Arizona.

I'll take the Giants on the moneyline at -135 at home.

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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