New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres NL Wild Card Game 3 Prediction, Pick, and Odds

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres NL Wild Card Game 3 Prediction, Pick, and Odds

Mets vs. Padres Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: October 9, 2022
• Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Mets vs. Padres Odds

• Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+165), Padres +1.5 (-195)
• Total: O/U 6.5
• Moneyline: Padres (+120) , Mets (-140)

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Mets vs. Padres Injury Report

Mets

None of Importance

Padres

Out: SS Fernando Tatis (Susepnsion)

There's only one game on the MLB slate tonight. The Guardians escaped the Rays. The Mariners slugged their way through the Blue Jays. And finally, the Phillies stunned the Cardinals.

All in two games. But the Mets and Padres have one more to play. Each team has won one game. Tonight's a do-or-die game in the best-of-three series. It's win or go home. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Sunday's game between the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets.

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

The Mets will take on the Padres at Citi Field on Sunday, looking to earn an NLDS spot against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The home game is significant for the Mets. It'll be Chris Bassitt on the mound for the Mets. He had a terrific season for New York, ending the regular season with a 15-9 record. The right-hander also had a 3.42 ERA with a WHIP of 1.14. But his home ERA sat below 3.00, with his road ERA reaching 4.00.

Bassitt's been much better when the home crowd cheers him on. In the last 30 days, we haven't seen Bassitt's best stuff. Admittedly, he's struggled. In the last 30 days, Bassitt has had an xFIP of 5.25. He's also struck out under 17% of batters faced while walking 9.5%.

The good news is that Bassitt has had a BABIP .232 over the last month. That means that only 23% of balls that have been hit into play became hits. That's ultimately due to the righty inducing 50% of grounders while allowing under 17% of line drives when balls are hit into play.

Bassitt has allowed a wOBA of .337 with an ISO of .179 in the last month, while righties have a .200 ISO. Bassitt will want to keep the power down against a Padres team that has hit at least one homer in each game in the series. The Padres' projected lineup has a .131 ISO and wOBA of .287 over the last 30 days. Only Juan Soto is hitting consistent power against righties in the previous 30 days, hitting a .230 ISO and wOBA of .384.

Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove has an xFIP of 4.57 in the previous month, despite having a 2.93 ERA in the regular season. The right-hander has struck out 28.6% of batters in that 30-day time frame but has walked 8% while earning under 38% of ground balls. Oddly enough, Musgrove, who just signed a significant extension with the Padres, has allowed a .345 wOBA and ISO of .213 to righties over his last 50 plate appearances. He's been fine against lefties, despite being a right-handed pitcher.

In the lineup, the Mets will have Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Tomas Nido batting from the right side in tonight's game. The rest will more than likely be lefties. Alonso has been the hottest hitter for the Mets, hitting a .303 ISO and wOBA of .433 in his last 79 plate appearances against righties. He was also coming off a game-winning home run last night.

The Mets are the better offense. They've hit a .180 ISO and wOBA of .365 as projected lineup over the last month. New York usually has a good approach and has hit 24.5% of line drives against righties in those 30 days. The Mets lineup has produced much more over the last month. The more significant sample size helps paint, the bigger picture. Bassitt is better at home, and the Mets have been hitting more effectively against righties over the last 30 days. Back the Mets.

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Pick

• Mets (-140) (Bet $140 to Win $100)

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