San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 1 Prediction, Picks, Odds
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 1 Prediction, Picks, Odds
Game 1 of the NLCS will begin tonight in the MLB. It's the Philadelphia Phillies going up against the San Diego Padres in Petco Park to begin the series. The Padres and Phillies snagged the NL's final two Wild Card spots. Now they're fighting for the chance to play in the World Series. It's funny how that worked out.
Will the Phillies earn an early win on the road tonight in a best-of-seven series? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Tuesday's game between the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Game 1 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: October 18, 2022
- Game Time: 8:03 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FS1
Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Game 1 Odds
- Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+175), Phillies +1.5 (-205)
- Total: Over 6.5 (-125), Under 6.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Padres (-125), Phillies (+105)
Click Here for NLCS Game 1 Odds
Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Game 1 Injury Report
Phillies
No Injuries of Importance
Padres
Out: SS Fernando Tatis (Susepnsion)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 1 Prediction
Zack Wheeler will get the start for the Phillies tonight. He's 0-1 with a 2.19 ERA in the postseason after two starts.
In the last 30 days, Wheeler has had a 2.52 xFIP with 24.5% of strikeouts and 3.1% of walks. He's also induced nearly 64% of grounders while allowing just 16.7% of line drives. Wheeler has rarely allowed extra-base hits and has kept his wOBA and ISO down against both sides of the plate through his last 98 plate appearances.
He'll take on a Padres lineup hitting a .154 ISO with a wOBA of .317 over the last month. This projected lineup has also struck out nearly 25% of the time. San Diego has walked 10.3% of the time while hitting 21.9% of line drives. They've got some potential, but Wheeler looks to be the better pitcher on the mound in this game.
On the other hand, we'll get Yu Darvish. He's 2-0 in the postseason but has a 3.00 ERA, which is higher than Wheeler's ERA.
In the last 30 days, Darvish has had a 3.52 xFIP with 26.8% of strikeouts and 4.1% of walks. He's been terrific but has only induced 27.7% of grounders while allowing 55.3% of fly balls. Darvish has kept his line drive rate down, so that's at least good. Still, lefties are hitting a wOBA of .329 and ISO of .279 over their last 64 plate appearances against Darvish.
The Phillies have two of the most powerful left-handed bats in the MLB, with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper at the top of the order. The lefties in the Phillies' order are hitting a .238 ISO with a wOBA of .348. That includes Schwarber, hitting a .444 ISO and wOBA of .438 over the last 71 plate appearances against righties.
Harper has a .194 ISO over his last 73 plate appearances as a lefty against righties. Even Brandon Marsh has shown some power from the left side against righties, holding an ISO of .207 over the last 65 plate appearances against righties. Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto have also been super hot against righties.
Therefore, I'm backing the Phillies on the road against San Diego in Game 1 of the NLCS.
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
- Phillies (+105) (Bet $100 to Collect $205)
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Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.