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The San Diego Padres host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of the NLCS. Can Aaron Nola lead the Phillies to a two-game lead tonight? Ben Rajavuori answers.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 2 Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Padres came in hot off a divisional series win against their rivals, the Dodgers, and came out flat in game one, posting one hit in the box score and losing 0-2. Now, their backs are against the wall in the NLCS. If they lose this game, the Phillies get to take a 2-0 series lead back to Philadelphia, which would be a devastating circumstance for the Padres, given how hot the Phillies are. Can the Padres even the series this afternoon or will the Phillies take a 2-0 lead? Let's dive into my prediction, pick, and odds for the Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Game 2.

Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Game 1 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: October 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:35 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FS1

Padres vs. Phillies NLCS Game 2 Odds

  • Run Line: Padres +1 (+135), Phillies -1 (-165)
  • Total: Over 7 (+102), Under 6.5 (-114)
  • Moneyline: Padres (-115), Phillies (+100)

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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 2 Prediction

The pressure is all on the Padres here. The Padres came into this series as the favorites to make it to the world series. They were impressive in knocking off both the Mets and Dodgers, who were two of the three winningest teams in the regular season. Then, they fell flat on their faces in game one. The offense was non-existent, and even though their pitching held the Phillies to just two runs on two solo dingers, the offense couldn't bring a man across the plate. The pressure is on at the plate for the Padres today. They have the tall task of facing one of the hottest postseason pitchers, Aaron Nola.

Aaron Nola had a great 2022 season, posting his lowest season ERA since 2018 at 3.25. His 0.96 WHIP is the lowest of any year in his career since he joined the league in 2015. Nola has been a consistent arm for the Phillies this season, but lately, he has looked even scarier. Nola has not allowed a run in four of his last five starts, and all three of his previous starts have been quality starts. His two postseason outings have been two shutouts against the Cardinals and Braves. He has a collective .95 WHIP in his two postseason starts, with just three walks and nine hits allowed in 12.2 innings. In Nola's only starts against the Padres this season, he pitched seven innings with one earned run allowed. Nola has the lowest ERA of any starter in the postseason with more than one start.

Blake Snell has had a successful second year with the Padres. Last season was a bit shakier, but he has gotten back in form for most of this season. He is 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA, but his splits are interesting. Snell has surprisingly been a worse pitcher at home than on the road. He is 4-8 at home with a 3.56 ERA and 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA on the team. The team has found the same trend stick when he is on the mound, as the Padres are 6-10 when Snell starts at home and 5-6 when he starts on the road.

This is not the only split that sticks out today. Snell has been much worse in day starts. Snell is 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA when he starts during the day versus a 2.83 ERA when he starts at night. The same was true last year, as he had a 7.25 ERA in night starts and a 3.01 ERA in night starts in 2021. The Padres, as a result, are 2-6 when Snell started a day game this season and 9-10 when he started a night game.

Snell had two starts against the Phillies this season and struggled in both. He went 3.2 innings while allowing 3 earned runs and three walks in the first meeting. The second wasn't much better, as he pitched 5.2 innings while allowing 4 earned runs. His 6.75 ERA against the Phillies this season was the highest ERA he had against any team with more than one outing.

The Phillies have been one of the best teams hitting in day games in the postseason. Their .248 batting average is second behind the Blue Jays. The Padres have struggled in daytime starts. They were one of the worst teams during day games in the regular season, posting a low .675 OPS in day starts, which was 23rd in the league. They went 28-31 in day games and 61-42 in night games.

This, combined with Snell's day game ERA, gives me little confidence in the Padres today against a hot offense in the Phillies and a hot pitcher in Aaron Nola (who the Phillies went 7-2 behind in day games during the regular season). I'm backing the Phillies to have the lead after five innings today because as good as the Phillies have looked, the Padres still have an advantage in the bullpen in this matchup. Nola is the better pitcher right now, and the Padres will need to have a serious effort at the plate against a pitcher who has yet to allow a run in the postseason.

Remember that the Padres vs. the Phillies isn't the only MLB game on tonight, the Yankees take on the Astros in the ALCS.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 2 Prediction

2u Pick: Phillies F5 ML @ -110 (Bet $110 to collect $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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