Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres NLCS Game 4 Prediction, Picks, Odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres NLCS Game 4 Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Philadelphia Phillies earned a massive home win against the San Diego Padres last night to go up 2-1 in the best-of-seven NLCS. The Phillies have two more games at home before heading back to San Diego in the series. If the Phillies can win both games, they'll be able to save themselves from a trip to San Diego.
Ultimately, the road win in Game 1 for the Phillies helped them reach this point. Can the Phillies earn another win at home tonight? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday's game between the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 4 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: October 22, 2022
- Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 4 Odds
- Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+155), Phillies +1.5 (-185)
- Total: Over 785 (-105), Under 8.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Phillies (-115), Padres (-105)
Click Here for NLCS Game 4 Odds
Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 4 Injury Report
Phillies
No Injuries of Importance
Padres
Out: SS Fernando Tatis (Susepnsion)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres NLCS Game 4 Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies will likely use a combination of Bailey Falter and Noah Syndergaard tonight. The Phillies will start with Bailey Falter, and we'll see what they do from there.
Falter hasn't thrown in the postseason but has a 2.81 xFIP over the last 30 days. He's a lefty who has struck out 26.7% of batters over that period and has walked just 4.4%. However, he's allowed a BABIP of .448 and has given up 38.7% of line drives while earning the same amount of ground balls. His last nine lefties have hit a .333 ISO, and his previous 36 righties have hit a .401 wOBA.
Meanwhile, the Padres have hit a .189 ISO and wOBA of .339 with their projected lineup over the last 30 days. They've still struck out 25.6% of the time against lefties but have walked nearly 9%. San Diego has 22.7% of line drives hit against lefties, but only Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Trent Grisham have hit for power against lefties in the last 30 days. The Padres struggled to do much of anything against Ranger Suarez the previous night, who is also a lefty.
On the flip side, Mike Clevinger will get the call for the Padres. Clevinger has a 13.50 ERA in the postseason and a 4.99 xFIP over the last 30 days. Clevinger has struck out just 14% of batters in those 30 days and has allowed 22.9% of line drives while only inducing 34.3% of ground balls.
Although he's a righty, Clevinger has struggled poorly against righties, giving up a .483 wOBA and ISO of .324 to his last 36 righties. Lefties have a .200 ISO over their previous 21 plate appearances against Clevinger.
The Phillies aren't getting consistent production from the middle of the lineup, but Philadelphia is dangerous at the top. Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and Bryce Harper have all hit a high ISO against righties over the last 30 days. Brandon Marsh also has solid numbers against righties and is batting ninth in the order.
As a projected lineup, the Phillies have a .179 ISO and wOBA of .303 with 22.7% of strikeouts. But if the strikeouts stay limited, we'll see many more hard-hit balls in play for the Phillies. Therefore, I'm on the over with two bottom-tier starters on the mound to start tonight's game.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Pick
- Over 8.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to Collect $215)
Looking for the best sportsbook offers? Check out the free bets page
Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.