Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 4 Prediction, Picks, Odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 4 Prediction, Picks, Odds
There's some pressure on the Houston Astros. The Philadelphia Phillies won Game 3 of the World Series and are now up 2-1 over the Astros. The Phillies will have two more games at home before traveling back to Houston for Games 6 and 7. But if the Phillies win the next two games, the trip to Houston won't ever happen.
Due to Monday's postponement, the Phillies could shuffle around their rotation. Now they're in much better shape than the Astros moving forward. The Phillies got five shutout innings from Ranger Suarez last night and now have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler available for three of the next four games.
That's terrific.
Can the Phillies earn their third win of the World Series tonight? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Wednesday's game between the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros.
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Phillies vs. Astros World Series Game 4 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: November 2, 2022
- Game Time: 8:03 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Phillies vs. Astros World Series Game 4 Odds
- Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+155), Phillies +1.5 (-180)
- Total: Over 7.5 (+100), Under 8 (-120)
- Moneyline: Astros (-110), Phillies (-110)
Click Here for Astros vs. Phillies World Series Game 4 Odds
Phillies vs. Astros World Series Game 4 Injury Report
Phillies
No Injuries of Importance
Astros
Out: OF Michael Brantley (Shoulder), C Jason Castro (Knee)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 4 Prediction
The Astros will send out their number four starter for tonight's game. It will be Christian Javier, who has had an xFIP of 2.47 in the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 29.2% of batters over that time frame. So while he's the fourth-best starter for the Astros, he could probably be the best starter on a dozen teams in the MLB.
Javier has walked 12.5% of batters over his last 24 plate appearances. But he’s still rocking a BABIP of .077. However, his last 16 righties have a .286 ISO. There's room for the Phillies to have success. Still, Javier has been hard to hit in the postseason. He's got a 1.35 ERA. He's escaped a lot of damage with his high walks. That's due to his high strikeout rate.
Against righties, the Phillies are hitting a .225 ISO and wOBA of .313 over their last 30 days using the projected lineup. But that lineup has hit just 12.2% of line drives against righties in that time frame while striking out 24.6% of the time. However, Philadelphia does work walks 9.1% of the time.
The Philadelphia righties should succeed in tonight's game, including Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. Again, Javier has struggled more against righties this season. Still, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have also had success against righties recently, along with Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. Those four are all lefties, however.
On the other hand, it'll be Aaron Nola for the Phillies He couldn’t even go five innings against the Astros in Game 1 of the World Series. He allowed five runs on six hits with two walks, two home runs, and five strikeouts. Those two home runs were from Kyle Tucker. Nola struggled against lefties over the last month, allowing a .353 wOBA and ISO of .278 to his last 40 lefties.
If Nola can limit damage against Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, he should be able to get through six quality innings for the Phillies. The Astros are hitting a .166 ISO and wOBA of .294 against righties over the last 30 days. Houston's hit more line drives than Philadelphia, but the Astros also have many right-handed hitters in the lineup going up against Nola.
Therefore, I like the Phillies to earn Game 4 and go up 3-1 in the World Series. Aaron Nola's the more consistent pitcher. If he can limit home runs to the two lefties in Houston's order, I like Philadelphia's chances. Give me the Phillies at home in Game 4.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Pick
- Phillies ML (-110) (Bet $100 to Collect $190) Click here for the best odds, available at FanDuel
Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.