NBA Player Prop Pick for Thursday: Jonas Valanciunas Redemption Night

NBA player prop pick and prediction for Thursday night. Handicapper John Hyslop is kicking off the Jonas Valanciunas redemption tour by zigging after he zagged, taking his over just a week after fading the big man.
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NBA Player Prop Pick for Thursday: Jonas Valanciunas Redemption Night

We are about to do something that is just not done in our corner of the sports betting world. It's a move that you almost never see from anyone, but especially not seen by us. Tonight we will attempt to successfully take a guy to go over his points total exactly one week after we cashed on his unders. Think about it, we've never done that. By doing this, we will show not only our versatility, but also our laser sharp focus. It will also allow a man a shot at redemption which is all any person can ask for. This will truly be a ground-breaking night for everyone involved. I can't wait.

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Jonas Valanciunas Over 16.5 Points @ +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

You can do this one of two ways people. You can pay the -120 and go with 15.5 at FanDuel or you can be an absolute beast and go 16.5 +100 at DraftKings. Obviously I'm going with the 16.5 for +100. You don't get into the Gambling Hall of Fame by paying -120 like a softbatch. It's just not done. I literally have to go 16.5 at +100 at this point. I didn't choose this life, it chose me.

Here's how we know it's safe to back Jonas and that our fade move last week was for his own good. Because it worked. Because ever since that night, he's only gotten better. Ball don't lie people. He's played three games since the fade move and his point totals are as follows: 17, 18, 19. If you took the SATs and got over 150, then you know what is coming next. That's just how numbers work.

The interesting part is the fact that his minutes have decreased in all three games. He's gone from 31 to 28 to 26. Not his fault people and it could be a good thing. The first night his minutes slipped because Pelicans blew out the Raptors. It's not like he plays for Tom Thibodeau. Of course he won't be on the floor in a blowout. The second time his minutes slipped was because he got in foul trouble. That's just passion people. He still dropped 19.

Tonight we shouldn't see a blowout and we'll hope Jonas can keep his hands to himself. Bam Adebayo just broke the Mavs off for 21 and even though Jonas isn't Bam, we don't need him to be. Isaiah Stewart just dropped 14 on these same Mavericks less than 10 days ago. That's like 25 for most centers. I think Jonas will thank the faders from last week with at least 17 points tonight.

ROI 27%
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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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