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Miami hosts Duke tonight for a thrilling ACC showdown. Handicapper and college basketball expert WeBeatTheSpread is here to break down his prediction, pick, and odds ahead of tonight's matchup.
ANALYSIS

Miami vs. Duke: Best Bet for Monday Night's ACC Showdown

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Miami vs. Duke Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Monday, February 6, 2022
  • Start Time: 7:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Click here for Miami vs. Duke odds

Miami vs. Duke Prediction

The Miami Hurricanes head home from Clemson, South Carolina, to host the Duke Blue Devils in Florida for a top matchup of ACC teams. Miami came away from Clemson with a four-point win, which improved their AP ranking from 23rd to 19th. Meanwhile, Duke had a home meeting on Saturday against the most notorious rivalry in college basketball with North Carolina, and they came away with a 63-57 win. Duke has won three in a row, but they have not crept back into the rankings. If the Blue Devils win tonight and against Virginia on Saturday, they will surely be back in the rankings. However, they haven't played the best on the road. Can Duke cover tonight as 2.5-point underdogs?

The Hurricanes heavily cemented themselves as the best offense in the ACC, with Virginia surprisingly right behind them. Miami averages 78 points per game, which is 40th in the country. In conference play, Miami is shooting 53.5% from inside the perimeter, an area they struggled with against Duke in the first meeting this season. On January 21st, Miami went to Cameron Indoor and lost 66-68, barely losing by two. In that game, Miami shot 12-42 from inside the perimeter. Their 28% two-point shooting in that game was the lowest they have had all season, and I doubt they will repeat the poor two-point shooting in this game. Miami is not an easy team to keep off the scoreboard, and they have been lighting it up at home. In their last three conference games at home, they have scored 92, 82, and 88 points.

Fourth-year junior Isaiah Wong leads the way with 16.2 points per game, but Miami is scoring more this year due to their ability to spread the scoring out more. Miami has four players averaging over 12 points per game, and they only had three last season.

The first season without coach K has gone pretty well for Duke, but it could be better. Jon Scheyer has done an excellent job at winning at Cameron Indoor, going 12-0 to start the season. However, Duke is 2-4 on the road, with losses to Wake Forest, N.C. State, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. Duke is a pretty well-balanced team, ranking 44th in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom, but their offense has cooled off in conference play. Duke is 9th in two-point percentage (50%) and 10th in three-point percentage (34&) in conference play. Their offense looks even worse on the road, too. Despite a poor shooting performance against Miami at home in the previous meeting, they were able to scrape out a two-point win, but it could be Miami's worst shooting performance of the season.

In the last regular-season meeting between these two before this season, Miami won at Duke 76-74 as 15-point underdogs. Miami has now covered four-straight meetings against Duke, and they have won three of the past ten meetings. While that doesn't sound super great, Miami has been underdogs in all of the last ten meetings. They are now finally favorites for the first time in a decade. This is the best Miami team we have seen since 2016, and this is arguably the worst Duke team in over 20 years (2021 was pretty bad, too). It's weird to think about Duke as "bad" at 17-6 overall and 8-4 in the conference, but they are not the same dominant team we saw for years under coach K.

Duke is 2-4 in true road games this season, and all four losses came to teams worse than Miami. Miami is the top offense in the conference and had an off-night shooting and still almost won at Cameron Indoor. Miami is 12-0 on their home floor this season, and revenge is on their minds. This is a recipe for a Miami win. Miami is favored against Duke for the first time in a decade for a reason.

Miami vs. Duke Pick

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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