Two gigantic games today as they each provide different means to a similar end of value. The Jazz have the Nuggets back to the wall, looking to close out this series in 5 and move on to the second round. Meanwhile the Clippers suddenly have their hands full tied with the Mavs heading into game 5 tonight. Let’s try and find the best value here so you can line those pockets!
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
BET: Jazz -4 @ +105
BET: Over 223.5 @ +114
Two bets to take here as the Jazz should close out the Nuggets in their opening round series. Following game one this has been a completely different story for Denver. The Nuggets might get Gary Harris back to help on defense but it’s looking too little too late. Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray should battle again, putting up a ton of points between the two, as the Jazz should continue to roll up points on the scoreboard. Each game they put up over 124 and even with Harris playing quality minutes, nothing seems to be able to slow down Utah. If the Nuggets are going to stay alive in this game, they simply have to outscore the Jazz, nothing defensively is going to slow them down. The pacing of this game might hit 250 in a total especially if it’s close and we see another overtime. I do love what the Jazz have been able to do with Mitchell and Mike Conley throwing waves of offense at Denver and am not quite sure what major adjustments Mike Malone can make before tip.
Love the Jazz to close this thing out, and really make it tough in the next round as they have found a stride. Another disappointing exit for the Nuggets, but let’s take advantage of their backs to the wall and a team that looks like it’s out of any real juice!
Jazz -4 @ +105
Jazz vs. Nuggets Over 223.5 @ +114
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
BET: Mavericks +4.5 1H @ -129
BET: Mavericks/Clippers HT/FT @ +490
There is no answer right now for Luka Doncic. The Clippers wanted no part of Luka late game last time out, and that momentum will carry over tonight. The Clips are clearly aware of how dire of a situation it would be to go down 3-2 in the first round, knowing how difficult it would be to outscore Dallas in two straight games. There is breathing room available tonight with LA but let’s not act like it’s coming in an easy fashion. The Clips will have to really push and work for this victory tonight as Dallas is on another level of motivation. Doncic is becoming one of the most difficult matchups in the league and Kawhi Leonard is on the verge of being outshined in the first round! LA should win this game, but I don’t see it happening until late. I’ll roll with Dallas in the first half, especially if laying a little juice gets me the hook on the 4.5. The crazy thing is that Kristaps Porzingis is still questionable, and it might not even matter if he plays. Part of that is because LA has gotten next to nothing out of its second star in Paul George and that looks to be the only consistent element from George. Don’t expect some breakout game tonight as Dallas will force him to take bad shots and rely on LA using Leonard and Lou Williams to put up their points.
The big value here is trying to take advantage of when that turn will happen in the game, and when the Clippers will eventually take the lead. Expect a close game, even if we see a 10-0 run, that shouldn’t get out of hand early. If it does, that’s going to be Dallas running away only to give up a lead. I love the Mavs early, but not enough to hold on to a lead. They haven’t been stellar on defense and that always concerns me when they hold a lead in the first half. The best bets center around Dallas jumping out early, then LA finding a way back in the game, ultimately winning it. It’s been the best series by a mile, and you can sense the pressure mounting on the Clippers.