NBA Picks - Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat (May 4, 2021)
It's not all about the clash between the Bucks and the Nets, there is another massive game for Tuesday.
Exiting the weekend, Miami found itself in a two-way tie for 5th place in the East, while Dallas found itself in a three-way tie for fifth place in the brutal West. Now, the two teams face off to help break the logjam.
The stakes for both are significant, but far more so for the Heat. If Miami finishes in 5th, they get to avoid having to face one of the big boys in round one. Even worse, a few too many losses down the stretch could cause them to drop into the play-in tournament.
For Dallas, there’s still a question as to whether the 5th or the 6th seed is better, what with Denver and the Clippers jockeying for position between those two spots. There’s even an argument that dropping to 7th isn’t the worst case, as the Jazz have been scuffling and Donovan Mitchell still isn’t back on the court.
These teams may have nearly identical records since the All-Star break, but by net rating, the Mavs are the far superior team, sporting a figure of positive 4.2 to Miami’s 1.2 in that time frame. The two teams are about even over the last 15 games, but then there’s this: the Heat are just 13-18-2 against the spread at home this season, while the Mavs are 18-14 ATS on the road.
The Pick: Dallas +3.5 @ -105 (Click here to bet)
Other NBA Games - Tuesday, May 4
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs have dropped nine of 10 on the court and against the spread and there seems to be some bad juju in Cleveland, if recent reports are to be believed. The Suns are the second best team against the spread this season and the best team by actual record. The spread can’t be high enough here.
Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans
This the second time in the final two weeks that these teams face off, with the first coming last night, also in New Orleans. The Warriors won that one, essentially eliminating the Pelicans from any realistic chance of the play-in. How will New Orleans respond? If this season is any indication, with a whimper. Take the Warriors.
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers
Go figure the Raptors…in this season to forget, they go into LA on Sunday night and dismantle the Lakers in a game the defending champs absolutely needed. Toronto probably has too far to make up to make the play-in, but they’re clearly going to relish the opportunity to play spoiler down the stretch, and they face a Clipper team that has dropped four straight against the spread.
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons
With the Hornets fighting like hell to avoid falling to 9th in the East, they’ll face the Pistons for the second time in three games. The first one was no contest, with Charlotte winning by 13 against a Detroit team playing any and all young players on the roster. The Hornets will take care of business again tonight.
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder
A matchup between two teams that have each lost by over 50 in the last week and have nothing to play for. A stay away if there ever was one, but if you can’t help it, go against the Thunder, who have by far the worst net rating in the NBA since the break.
Tuesday, May 4 NBA Expert Picks
Dallas +3.5 @ -105 (Click here to bet)
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