Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction: Game 5 Picks
Is Phoenix in trouble? Or do they just need a little home cooking?
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
We’ve had The Shot, now we have The Block.
When Giannis Antetokounmpo met Deandre Ayton at the rim to preserve a 2-point lead with under 90 seconds to go in Game 4, it became an instant all-time moment. That’s how impressive the feat was given the game situation and stakes at hand.
Those stakes are what would concern me if I was thinking of taking Milwaukee for Game 5. The reality is that if Giannis didn’t go superhuman for that play, there’s a 50/50 chance the Bucks blow this game. They were down by six entering the fourth quarter and were outshot for the game by a significant margin: 51.3 percent for the Suns, 40.2 percent for Milwaukee.
It gets worse. Yet again, the Bucks couldn’t make shots from outside, as they shot under 25 percent from deep. Even Khris Middleton, who went off for 40 points, needed 33 shots to get there.
The reason they won this game had everything to do with the margins, and it’s here that two numbers stick out: 17 and 5. The Bucks had 17 offensive rebounds to the Suns’ 5, while Milwaukee had just 5 turnovers to Phoenix’s 17. Throw in the free throw disparity – plus 10 for the home team – and it’s clear that the Bucks won this game, much like Game 4 with heart and grit more than skill.
Which gets us back to Phoenix. This is not the first time they’ve left observers feeling somewhat underwhelmed in this postseason. They’ve had four double digit losses in the postseason, and while this wasn’t a fourth, given how much they were seemingly outworked and how careless they were with the ball, it sure felt like one.
It had a similar feel to both Games 3 and 5 of the Clippers’ series, and after each of those losses, the Suns came back with a win, one by four and one by 27, both in Los Angeles. They also followed up their worst loss in the Lakers series with an eight-point win, also in LA, and perhaps most importantly, Phoenix has not lost three games in a row since January, and has only dropped three straight against the spread twice all season.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, has not won or covered three straight since their first round series against Miami, and that was only after they went up 3-0. They are also a markedly worse team on the road in the playoffs than they are at home, getting outscored by over two points per 100 possessions on the road.
All that being said, the Bucks are playing with all the heart right now. If you’re looking for value in the same game parlay realm, check out the double result of Bucks winning the first half but Phoenix winning the game, which gets you +480, and if you combine that with Suns winning by a margin of under 11 points, you can get over 6-to-1 on the whole bet.
This series has the feel of seven games. The Suns will regroup and respond.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns Game 5 Prediction: Suns -4 @ -105