NBA Player Prop Picks: The Two Best Bets for Wednesday's Slate
I love to gamble. That's why I'm so happy about the NBA being back. It's an everyday thing, just like MLB. Let me give you some advice, though -- the first few weeks are all about superstars and plus-money role players. That's it. Let the rotations get set before we start trying to pick off anything else. It just makes sense. You don't have to have an excellent record to bring home a little cash by taking plus money role players, especially in the three-pointers market. It's math, people. You don't even have to have a winning record to profit, which helps when nobody really knows everyone's role. Here are two for tonight.
Jaren Jackson Jr Over 1.5 Made-Threes (+145)
DraftKings is the only book offering 1.5, and they are doing it at +145. That's crazy. Both FanDuel and BetMGM have him at 2.5, which is where he should be. You can get plus money at all three places, but obviously, we want 1.5 at +145. This line won't last all day.
Jaren Jackson took 12 three-pointers in his last preseason game. That's ridiculous. He was a walking "heat check" for the entire 29 minutes he was on the floor. Let me tell you this; we can't know if a guy will hit his shots on a night-to-night basis. We just want to know he is taking them. In his last three preseason games, Jackson took at least six in all three. We're clean here.
Now we need to know the guy is going to get minutes in a friendly environment. You can't hit shots from the bench, people. He just signed an extension for $105M the other day, so he's getting minutes. Tonight the Grizzlies have the Cleveland Cavaliers, and they are favored by 7.5 points, so we have a fairly friendly environment going. Even if Memphis blows Cleveland out, Jackson should still have time to take enough threes to get home on this number.
Harrison Barnes Over 1.5 Made-Threes (+115)
This is another "what are they thinking" line. DraftKings has Barnes at 1.5 for +115 while FanDuel has 1.5 -172. BetMGM is a little more reasonable at 1.5 -150, but obviously, they are a far cry from DraftKings. We'll gladly take it.
Harrison Barnes is going to get minutes. He played 36 minutes per game last season, which was a career-high. Again, you can't hit treys while sitting on the bench. The thing with Barnes is in the preseason; he was taking threes similar to what he did at the end of last season.
In his last eight games where he played at least 30 minutes last season, Barnes took at least six three-point attempts in seven of them. He drained at least two of the attempts in seven of the eight games as well. So we're chasing attempts and bad lines here, people, and we found both with Barnes tonight.